Predictions / Football / Sweden. Superettan / Osters IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Prediction Audit: Osters IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Osters IF Osters IF
Jul 27, 2026 - 17:05
3 2.22
0 2.41
xG Accuracy: 42%
Varbergs BoIS FC Varbergs BoIS FC

The model missed the final outcome (Osters IF win 3–0).

The model had projected Varbergs BoIS FC at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Varbergs BoIS FC Osters IF ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 1-2, 2-1, 2-3, 1-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -6.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Osters IF 36.4% 33.4% +2.9 pp Aligned
Draw 20.4% 26.7% -6.3 pp Market Higher
Varbergs BoIS FC 43.2% 39.9% +3.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 26.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 20.4%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Osters IF win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.63) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Varbergs BoIS FC; match finished Osters IF

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Varbergs BoIS FC by 6.3 percentage points (49.5% vs model 43.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 27, 2026 · 17:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Osters IF 36.3% · Draw 20.4% · Varbergs BoIS FC 43.3%
    • xG · Osters IF 2.22 — Varbergs BoIS FC 2.41
  2. Jul 27, 2026 · 16:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Osters IF 2.85 · Draw 3.57 · Varbergs BoIS FC 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Osters IF 33.4% · Draw 26.7% · Varbergs BoIS FC 39.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 27, 2026 · 17:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Osters IF 2.85 · Draw 3.57 · Varbergs BoIS FC 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Osters IF 33.4% · Draw 26.7% · Varbergs BoIS FC 39.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 27, 2026 · 17:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Osters IF win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 70/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (79%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 73/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457104

Closing Odds 3.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Osters IF win · Osters IF 3–0 Varbergs BoIS FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: Osters IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 17:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.3% · Draw 20.4% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Osters IF 2.22 — Varbergs BoIS FC 2.41 (total xG ≈ 4.63)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 16.0% · Over 2.5 84.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 81.8% · No 18.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 81.8% · No 18.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (7.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 13 6 6 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 13 5 7 44
4 Ostersunds FK 25 11 10 4 43
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 11 7 7 40
6 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 36
7 Osters IF 25 11 3 11 36
8 United Nordic 25 9 9 7 36
9 Sandviken 25 9 7 9 34
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 30
11 IFK Varnamo 25 8 5 12 29
12 ljungSKile SK 25 7 7 11 28
13 Norrby IF 25 4 12 9 24
14 Orebro SK 25 5 9 11 24
15 IK brage 25 5 8 12 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 48 16 +32 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 46 33 +13 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 44 33 +11 44
4 Sandviken 25 41 35 +6 34
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 39 26 +13 40
6 IK brage 25 39 48 -9 23
7 Oddevold 25 38 34 +4 36
8 Osters IF 25 38 38 0 36
9 United Nordic 25 38 40 -2 36
10 Helsingborg 25 36 45 -9 30
11 Ostersunds FK 25 33 24 +9 43
12 ljungSKile SK 25 33 36 -3 28
13 IFK Varnamo 25 33 45 -12 29
14 Norrby IF 25 28 35 -7 24
15 Orebro SK 25 27 39 -12 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 19 53 -34 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 4.8 2.8 +2.0 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 25 4.5 2.8 +1.7 55
3 ljungSKile SK 25 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 25 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 1.6 2.6 -1.0 40
6 Ostersunds FK 25 0.6 3.4 -2.8 43
7 falkenbergs FF 25 — — — 45
8 Osters IF 25 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 25 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 25 — — — 34
11 Helsingborg 25 — — — 30
12 IFK Varnamo 25 — — — 29
13 Norrby IF 25 — — — 24
14 Orebro SK 25 — — — 24
15 IK brage 25 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 — — — 19