Predictions / Football / Sweden. Superettan / ljungSKile SK vs Sandviken

Prediction Audit: ljungSKile SK vs Sandviken Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ljungSKile SK ljungSKile SK
Jul 26, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.60
1 1.88
xG Accuracy: 70%
Sandviken Sandviken

The model missed the final outcome (ljungSKile SK win 2–1).

The model had projected Sandviken at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sandviken ljungSKile SK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices ljungSKile SK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ljungSKile SK -11.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ljungSKile SK 36.4% 47.9% -11.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.2% 25.1% +0.2 pp Aligned
Sandviken 38.4% 27.1% +11.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates ljungSKile SK's win probability at 47.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.4%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was ljungSKile SK win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about ljungSKile SK than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sandviken; match finished ljungSKile SK

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sandviken by 11.5 percentage points (49.9% vs model 38.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ljungSKile SK 36.3% · Draw 25.2% · Sandviken 38.4%
    • xG · ljungSKile SK 1.60 — Sandviken 1.88
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ljungSKile SK 1.99 · Draw 3.80 · Sandviken 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · ljungSKile SK 47.9% · Draw 25.1% · Sandviken 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · ljungSKile SK 1.99 · Draw 3.80 · Sandviken 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · ljungSKile SK 47.9% · Draw 25.1% · Sandviken 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ljungSKile SK win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449291

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ljungSKile SK win · ljungSKile SK 2–1 Sandviken
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: ljungSKile SK vs Sandviken
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): ljungSKile SK 1.6 — Sandviken 1.88 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 13 6 6 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 13 5 7 44
4 Ostersunds FK 25 11 10 4 43
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 11 7 7 40
6 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 36
7 Osters IF 25 11 3 11 36
8 United Nordic 25 9 9 7 36
9 Sandviken 25 9 7 9 34
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 30
11 IFK Varnamo 25 8 5 12 29
12 ljungSKile SK 25 7 7 11 28
13 Norrby IF 25 4 12 9 24
14 Orebro SK 25 5 9 11 24
15 IK brage 25 5 8 12 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 48 16 +32 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 46 33 +13 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 44 33 +11 44
4 Sandviken 25 41 35 +6 34
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 39 26 +13 40
6 IK brage 25 39 48 -9 23
7 Oddevold 25 38 34 +4 36
8 Osters IF 25 38 38 0 36
9 United Nordic 25 38 40 -2 36
10 Helsingborg 25 36 45 -9 30
11 Ostersunds FK 25 33 24 +9 43
12 ljungSKile SK 25 33 36 -3 28
13 IFK Varnamo 25 33 45 -12 29
14 Norrby IF 25 28 35 -7 24
15 Orebro SK 25 27 39 -12 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 19 53 -34 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 4.8 2.8 +2.0 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 25 4.5 2.8 +1.7 55
3 ljungSKile SK 25 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 25 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 1.6 2.6 -1.0 40
6 Ostersunds FK 25 0.6 3.4 -2.8 43
7 falkenbergs FF 25 — — — 45
8 Osters IF 25 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 25 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 25 — — — 34
11 Helsingborg 25 — — — 30
12 IFK Varnamo 25 — — — 29
13 Norrby IF 25 — — — 24
14 Orebro SK 25 — — — 24
15 IK brage 25 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 — — — 19