Predictions / Football / Sweden. Superettan / Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall

Prediction Audit: Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Norrby IF Norrby IF
Jul 20, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.74
1 1.74
xG Accuracy: 58%
GIF Sundsvall GIF Sundsvall

AI correctly predicted the Norrby IF win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Norrby IF Norrby IF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates GIF Sundsvall considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: GIF Sundsvall +8.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Norrby IF 40.4% 47.2% -6.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.9% -1.2 pp Aligned
GIF Sundsvall 33.9% 25.9% +8.0 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates GIF Sundsvall's win probability at 33.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Norrby IF win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on GIF Sundsvall.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Norrby IF more conservatively (32.4% vs model 40.4%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Norrby IF win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 20, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Norrby IF 40.3% · Draw 25.8% · GIF Sundsvall 33.9%
    • xG · Norrby IF 1.74 — GIF Sundsvall 1.74
  2. Jul 20, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Norrby IF 2.02 · Draw 3.54 · GIF Sundsvall 3.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Norrby IF 47.2% · Draw 26.9% · GIF Sundsvall 25.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 20, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Norrby IF 2.02 · Draw 3.54 · GIF Sundsvall 3.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Norrby IF 47.2% · Draw 26.9% · GIF Sundsvall 25.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 20, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Norrby IF win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 59/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1616166

Closing Odds 3.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Norrby IF win · Norrby IF 3–1 GIF Sundsvall
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-20 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Norrby IF 1.74 — GIF Sundsvall 1.74 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 13 6 6 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 13 5 7 44
4 Ostersunds FK 25 11 10 4 43
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 11 7 7 40
6 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 36
7 Osters IF 25 11 3 11 36
8 United Nordic 25 9 9 7 36
9 Sandviken 25 9 7 9 34
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 30
11 IFK Varnamo 25 8 5 12 29
12 ljungSKile SK 25 7 7 11 28
13 Norrby IF 25 4 12 9 24
14 Orebro SK 25 5 9 11 24
15 IK brage 25 5 8 12 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 48 16 +32 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 46 33 +13 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 44 33 +11 44
4 Sandviken 25 41 35 +6 34
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 39 26 +13 40
6 IK brage 25 39 48 -9 23
7 Oddevold 25 38 34 +4 36
8 Osters IF 25 38 38 0 36
9 United Nordic 25 38 40 -2 36
10 Helsingborg 25 36 45 -9 30
11 Ostersunds FK 25 33 24 +9 43
12 ljungSKile SK 25 33 36 -3 28
13 IFK Varnamo 25 33 45 -12 29
14 Norrby IF 25 28 35 -7 24
15 Orebro SK 25 27 39 -12 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 19 53 -34 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 4.8 2.8 +2.0 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 25 4.5 2.8 +1.7 55
3 ljungSKile SK 25 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 25 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 1.6 2.6 -1.0 40
6 Ostersunds FK 25 0.6 3.4 -2.8 43
7 falkenbergs FF 25 — — — 45
8 Osters IF 25 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 25 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 25 — — — 34
11 Helsingborg 25 — — — 30
12 IFK Varnamo 25 — — — 29
13 Norrby IF 25 — — — 24
14 Orebro SK 25 — — — 24
15 IK brage 25 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 — — — 19