Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Sarpsborg 08 II vs Brumunddal

Prediction Audit: Sarpsborg 08 II vs Brumunddal Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sarpsborg 08 II Sarpsborg 08 II
Aug 09, 2026 - 16:00
11 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 5%
Brumunddal Brumunddal

The model missed the final outcome (Sarpsborg 08 II win 11–0).

The model had projected Brumunddal at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (11 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Brumunddal Sarpsborg 08 II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 11-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 11 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (11 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Sarpsborg 08 II win 11–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Sarpsborg 08 II 1.25 — Brumunddal 1.35
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Sarpsborg 08 II win · 11–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966293

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sarpsborg 08 II win · Sarpsborg 08 II 11–0 Brumunddal
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 II vs Brumunddal
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Sarpsborg 08 II 1.25 — Brumunddal 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 22 17 2 3 53
2 Elverum 22 14 2 6 44
3 Råde 22 12 4 6 40
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 22 12 2 8 38
5 Drøbak / Frogn 22 10 5 7 35
6 Ørn Horten 22 10 5 7 35
7 Sandefjord II 22 10 3 9 33
8 Oppsal 22 10 3 9 33
9 Lyn II 22 9 4 9 31
10 Raelingen 22 9 4 9 31
11 Sarpsborg 08 II 22 8 4 10 28
12 Fram 22 6 5 11 23
13 Brumunddal 22 3 3 16 12
14 Bjørkelangen 22 1 0 21 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 22 83 32 +51 53
2 Råde 22 70 40 +30 40
3 Elverum 22 61 36 +25 44
4 Sandefjord II 22 54 46 +8 33
5 Drøbak / Frogn 22 50 31 +19 35
6 Sarpsborg 08 II 22 50 53 -3 28
7 Lyn II 22 47 47 0 31
8 Ørn Horten 22 44 35 +9 35
9 Oppsal 22 39 35 +4 33
10 Fram 22 39 49 -10 23
11 Raelingen 22 39 54 -15 31
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 22 36 20 +16 38
13 Brumunddal 22 25 88 -63 12
14 Bjørkelangen 22 16 87 -71 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions