Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Ørn Horten vs Raelingen

Prediction Audit: Ørn Horten vs Raelingen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ørn Horten Ørn Horten
Aug 01, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 56%
⚽
Raelingen

The model missed the final outcome (Raelingen win 0–2).

The model had projected Ørn Horten at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ørn Horten Raelingen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ørn Horten higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ørn Horten -29.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ørn Horten 37.1% 66.1% -29.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 17.4% +12.2 pp Model Edge
Raelingen 33.3% 16.5% +16.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ørn Horten's win probability at 66.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 29.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Raelingen win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Ørn Horten; match finished Raelingen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ørn Horten by 29.1 percentage points (66.2% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 12:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ørn Horten 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Raelingen 33.4%
    • xG · Ørn Horten 1.34 — Raelingen 1.26
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ørn Horten 1.41 · Draw 4.79 · Raelingen 4.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Ørn Horten 62.9% · Draw 18.5% · Raelingen 18.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 12:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Ørn Horten 1.36 · Draw 5.16 · Raelingen 5.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Ørn Horten 66.1% · Draw 17.4% · Raelingen 16.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Raelingen win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1801404

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Raelingen win · Ørn Horten 0–2 Raelingen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Ørn Horten vs Raelingen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Ørn Horten 1.34 — Raelingen 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 16 2 3 50
2 Elverum 21 13 2 6 41
3 Råde 21 12 3 6 39
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 11 2 8 35
5 Oppsal 21 10 3 8 33
6 Drøbak / Frogn 21 9 5 7 32
7 Sandefjord II 21 10 2 9 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 9 5 7 32
9 Lyn II 20 9 3 8 30
10 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 8 4 9 28
11 Raelingen 20 8 4 8 28
12 Fram 21 6 4 11 22
13 Brumunddal 21 3 3 15 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 1 0 20 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 79 30 +49 50
2 Råde 21 70 40 +30 39
3 Elverum 21 56 36 +20 41
4 Sandefjord II 21 53 45 +8 32
5 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 49 49 0 28
6 Lyn II 20 47 46 +1 30
7 Drøbak / Frogn 21 46 30 +16 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 40 35 +5 32
9 Fram 21 38 48 -10 22
10 Raelingen 20 38 49 -11 28
11 Oppsal 21 37 31 +6 33
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 31 20 +11 35
13 Brumunddal 21 25 84 -59 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 16 82 -66 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions