Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Oppsal vs Sarpsborg 08 II

Prediction Audit: Oppsal vs Sarpsborg 08 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Oppsal Oppsal
Aug 03, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 68%
Sarpsborg 08 II Sarpsborg 08 II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Oppsal at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Oppsal Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Oppsal higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Oppsal -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Oppsal 37.5% 49.9% -12.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.9% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Sarpsborg 08 II 32.9% 27.2% +5.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Oppsal's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Oppsal than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Oppsal; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Oppsal by 12.3 percentage points (49.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Oppsal 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sarpsborg 08 II 32.9%
    • xG · Oppsal 1.35 — Sarpsborg 08 II 1.25
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Oppsal 1.78 · Draw 3.88 · Sarpsborg 08 II 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Oppsal 49.9% · Draw 22.9% · Sarpsborg 08 II 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Oppsal 1.78 · Draw 3.88 · Sarpsborg 08 II 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Oppsal 49.9% · Draw 22.9% · Sarpsborg 08 II 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 38/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2132024

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Oppsal 2–2 Sarpsborg 08 II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Oppsal vs Sarpsborg 08 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Oppsal 1.35 — Sarpsborg 08 II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 16 2 3 50
2 Elverum 21 13 2 6 41
3 Råde 21 12 3 6 39
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 11 2 8 35
5 Oppsal 21 10 3 8 33
6 Drøbak / Frogn 21 9 5 7 32
7 Sandefjord II 21 10 2 9 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 9 5 7 32
9 Lyn II 20 9 3 8 30
10 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 8 4 9 28
11 Raelingen 20 8 4 8 28
12 Fram 21 6 4 11 22
13 Brumunddal 21 3 3 15 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 1 0 20 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 79 30 +49 50
2 Råde 21 70 40 +30 39
3 Elverum 21 56 36 +20 41
4 Sandefjord II 21 53 45 +8 32
5 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 49 49 0 28
6 Lyn II 20 47 46 +1 30
7 Drøbak / Frogn 21 46 30 +16 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 40 35 +5 32
9 Fram 21 38 48 -10 22
10 Raelingen 20 38 49 -11 28
11 Oppsal 21 37 31 +6 33
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 31 20 +11 35
13 Brumunddal 21 25 84 -59 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 16 82 -66 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions