Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Gjøvik-Lyn vs Råde

Prediction Audit: Gjøvik-Lyn vs Råde Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gjøvik-Lyn Gjøvik-Lyn
Jul 25, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Råde Råde

The model missed the final outcome (Råde win 0–3).

The model had projected Gjøvik-Lyn at 35.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gjøvik-Lyn Råde ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Råde higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Råde -5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gjøvik-Lyn 35.9% 34.6% +1.3 pp Aligned
Draw 28.4% 24.3% +4.0 pp Aligned
Råde 35.8% 41.1% -5.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Råde's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.8%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Råde win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Råde. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gjøvik-Lyn by 5.3 percentage points (41.2% vs model 35.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 21:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gjøvik-Lyn 35.9% · Draw 28.4% · Råde 35.8%
    • xG · Gjøvik-Lyn 1.32 — Råde 1.28
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gjøvik-Lyn 2.60 · Draw 3.70 · Råde 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Gjøvik-Lyn 34.6% · Draw 24.3% · Råde 41.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gjøvik-Lyn 2.60 · Draw 3.70 · Råde 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Gjøvik-Lyn 34.6% · Draw 24.3% · Råde 41.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Råde win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453709

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Råde win · Gjøvik-Lyn 0–3 Råde
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Norwegian 3rd Division Group 6
  • Fixture: Gjøvik-Lyn vs Råde
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Gjøvik-Lyn 1.32 — Råde 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 19 14 2 3 44
2 Råde 19 12 2 5 38
3 Elverum 19 12 2 5 38
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 19 11 2 6 35
5 Ørn Horten 19 8 5 6 29
6 Lyn II 19 9 2 8 29
7 Raelingen 19 8 4 7 28
8 Oppsal 19 8 3 8 27
9 Drøbak / Frogn 19 7 5 7 26
10 Sandefjord II 19 8 2 9 26
11 Sarpsborg 08 II 19 7 3 9 24
12 Fram 19 6 3 10 21
13 Brumunddal 19 3 3 13 12
14 Bjørkelangen 19 1 0 18 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Råde 19 68 34 +34 38
2 Lillehammer 19 67 28 +39 44
3 Elverum 19 49 31 +18 38
4 Sandefjord II 19 47 41 +6 26
5 Lyn II 19 45 44 +1 29
6 Sarpsborg 08 II 19 44 45 -1 24
7 Drøbak / Frogn 19 37 28 +9 26
8 Raelingen 19 37 45 -8 28
9 Ørn Horten 19 36 31 +5 29
10 Fram 19 35 43 -8 21
11 Oppsal 19 33 30 +3 27
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 19 27 14 +13 35
13 Brumunddal 19 23 80 -57 12
14 Bjørkelangen 19 15 69 -54 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions