Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Sarpsborg 08 II vs Ørn Horten

Prediction Audit: Sarpsborg 08 II vs Ørn Horten Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sarpsborg 08 II Sarpsborg 08 II
Jul 27, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.23
3 1.37
xG Accuracy: 52%
Ørn Horten Ørn Horten

AI correctly predicted the Ørn Horten win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ørn Horten Ørn Horten ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sarpsborg 08 II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sarpsborg 08 II -5.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sarpsborg 08 II 31.9% 37.3% -5.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.8% 23.6% +4.2 pp Aligned
Ørn Horten 40.3% 39.1% +1.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sarpsborg 08 II's win probability at 37.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ørn Horten win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sarpsborg 08 II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ørn Horten higher (45.7% vs model 40.3%, 5.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ørn Horten win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 27, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sarpsborg 08 II 31.9% · Draw 27.8% · Ørn Horten 40.3%
    • xG · Sarpsborg 08 II 1.23 — Ørn Horten 1.37
  2. Jul 27, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sarpsborg 08 II 2.80 · Draw 3.62 · Ørn Horten 2.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Sarpsborg 08 II 31.8% · Draw 24.6% · Ørn Horten 43.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sarpsborg 08 II 2.41 · Draw 3.81 · Ørn Horten 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Sarpsborg 08 II 37.3% · Draw 23.6% · Ørn Horten 39.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ørn Horten win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454920

Closing Odds 2.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ørn Horten win · Sarpsborg 08 II 2–3 Ørn Horten
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 II vs Ørn Horten
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Sarpsborg 08 II 1.23 — Ørn Horten 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 16 2 3 50
2 Elverum 21 13 2 6 41
3 Råde 21 12 3 6 39
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 11 2 8 35
5 Oppsal 21 10 3 8 33
6 Drøbak / Frogn 21 9 5 7 32
7 Sandefjord II 21 10 2 9 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 9 5 7 32
9 Lyn II 20 9 3 8 30
10 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 8 4 9 28
11 Raelingen 20 8 4 8 28
12 Fram 21 6 4 11 22
13 Brumunddal 21 3 3 15 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 1 0 20 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 79 30 +49 50
2 Råde 21 70 40 +30 39
3 Elverum 21 56 36 +20 41
4 Sandefjord II 21 53 45 +8 32
5 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 49 49 0 28
6 Lyn II 20 47 46 +1 30
7 Drøbak / Frogn 21 46 30 +16 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 40 35 +5 32
9 Fram 21 38 48 -10 22
10 Raelingen 20 38 49 -11 28
11 Oppsal 21 37 31 +6 33
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 31 20 +11 35
13 Brumunddal 21 25 84 -59 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 16 82 -66 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions