Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Råde vs Lyn II

Prediction Audit: Råde vs Lyn II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Råde Råde
Jun 28, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.32
5 1.28
xG Accuracy: 23%
Lyn II Lyn II

The model missed the final outcome (Lyn II win 3–5).

The model had projected Råde at 49.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Råde Lyn II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Råde higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Råde -28.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Råde 49.2% 77.8% -28.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.0% 12.4% +12.6 pp Model Edge
Lyn II 25.8% 9.8% +15.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Råde's win probability at 77.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.2%, a difference of 28.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Lyn II win 3–5.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Råde; match finished Lyn II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Råde by 28.6 percentage points (77.8% vs model 49.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 28, 2026 · 19:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Råde 49.2% · Draw 25.0% · Lyn II 25.8%
    • xG · Råde 1.32 — Lyn II 1.28
  2. Jun 28, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Råde 1.14 · Draw 7.17 · Lyn II 9.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Råde 77.8% · Draw 12.4% · Lyn II 9.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 28, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Råde 1.14 · Draw 7.17 · Lyn II 9.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Råde 77.8% · Draw 12.4% · Lyn II 9.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 28, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lyn II win · 3–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 15:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2624223

Closing Odds 1.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lyn II win · Råde 3–5 Lyn II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Råde vs Lyn II
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Råde 1.32 — Lyn II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 16 2 3 50
2 Elverum 21 13 2 6 41
3 Råde 21 12 3 6 39
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 11 2 8 35
5 Oppsal 21 10 3 8 33
6 Drøbak / Frogn 21 9 5 7 32
7 Sandefjord II 21 10 2 9 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 9 5 7 32
9 Raelingen 21 9 4 8 31
10 Lyn II 21 9 3 9 30
11 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 8 4 9 28
12 Fram 21 6 4 11 22
13 Brumunddal 21 3 3 15 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 1 0 20 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 79 30 +49 50
2 Råde 21 70 40 +30 39
3 Elverum 21 56 36 +20 41
4 Sandefjord II 21 53 45 +8 32
5 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 49 49 0 28
6 Lyn II 21 47 47 0 30
7 Drøbak / Frogn 21 46 30 +16 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 40 35 +5 32
9 Raelingen 21 39 49 -10 31
10 Fram 21 38 48 -10 22
11 Oppsal 21 37 31 +6 33
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 31 20 +11 35
13 Brumunddal 21 25 84 -59 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 16 82 -66 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions