Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Skjervøy vs Kongsvinger II

Prediction Audit: Skjervøy vs Kongsvinger II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Skjervøy Skjervøy
Sep 06, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Kongsvinger II Kongsvinger II

AI correctly predicted the Skjervøy win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skjervøy Skjervøy ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Skjervøy 36.1% 43.4% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.1% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Kongsvinger II 34.2% 34.5% -0.2 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.1%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Skjervøy win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Skjervøy more conservatively (28.6% vs model 36.1%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Skjervøy win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Skjervøy 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Kongsvinger II 34.2%
    • xG · Skjervøy 1.32 — Kongsvinger II 1.28
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Skjervøy 2.05 · Draw 4.02 · Kongsvinger II 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Skjervøy 43.4% · Draw 22.1% · Kongsvinger II 34.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Skjervøy 2.05 · Draw 4.02 · Kongsvinger II 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Skjervøy 43.4% · Draw 22.1% · Kongsvinger II 34.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Skjervøy win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6325068

Closing Odds 4.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Skjervøy win · Skjervøy 3–1 Kongsvinger II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Skjervøy vs Kongsvinger II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Skjervøy 1.32 — Kongsvinger II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. Division - Girone 5 Matches Track Skjervøy Next Match Prediction Track Kongsvinger II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Skjervøy & Kongsvinger II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 21 16 1 4 49
2 Harstad 21 12 3 6 39
3 Fløya 21 12 3 6 39
4 Alta 21 11 6 4 39
5 Finnsnes 21 11 2 8 35
6 Skjetten 21 10 3 8 33
7 Fauske Sprint 21 9 4 8 31
8 Lillestrøm II 21 9 0 12 27
9 Kongsvinger II 21 8 2 11 26
10 Skjervøy 21 7 3 11 24
11 Tromsø II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Strømsgodset II 21 7 2 12 23
13 Bossekop 21 5 4 12 19
14 Ulfstind 21 4 2 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillestrøm II 21 68 53 +15 27
2 Harstad 21 67 33 +34 39
3 Fauske Sprint 21 58 68 -10 31
4 Fløya 21 56 33 +23 39
5 Alta 21 54 31 +23 39
6 Skjetten 21 52 42 +10 33
7 Skedsmo 21 50 25 +25 49
8 Strømsgodset II 21 41 48 -7 23
9 Tromsø II 21 40 38 +2 23
10 Finnsnes 21 39 34 +5 35
11 Kongsvinger II 21 38 58 -20 26
12 Ulfstind 21 36 77 -41 14
13 Bossekop 21 34 70 -36 19
14 Skjervøy 21 33 56 -23 24
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions