Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Ulfstind vs Skjervøy

Prediction Audit: Ulfstind vs Skjervøy Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ulfstind Ulfstind
Jul 30, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Skjervøy Skjervøy

The model missed the final outcome (Skjervøy win 1–3).

The model had projected Ulfstind at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ulfstind Skjervøy ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ulfstind higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ulfstind -20.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ulfstind 36.1% 56.9% -20.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.0% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Skjervøy 34.2% 23.1% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ulfstind's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Skjervøy win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ulfstind; match finished Skjervøy

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ulfstind by 20.8 percentage points (56.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 30, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ulfstind 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Skjervøy 34.2%
    • xG · Ulfstind 1.32 — Skjervøy 1.28
  2. Jul 30, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ulfstind 1.55 · Draw 4.41 · Skjervøy 3.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Ulfstind 56.9% · Draw 20.0% · Skjervøy 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 30, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ulfstind 1.55 · Draw 4.41 · Skjervøy 3.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Ulfstind 56.9% · Draw 20.0% · Skjervøy 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 30, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Skjervøy win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1525257

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Skjervøy win · Ulfstind 1–3 Skjervøy
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Ulfstind vs Skjervøy
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-30 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ulfstind 1.32 — Skjervøy 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 21 16 1 4 49
2 Harstad 21 12 3 6 39
3 Fløya 21 12 3 6 39
4 Alta 21 11 6 4 39
5 Finnsnes 21 11 2 8 35
6 Skjetten 21 10 3 8 33
7 Fauske Sprint 21 9 4 8 31
8 Lillestrøm II 21 9 0 12 27
9 Kongsvinger II 21 8 2 11 26
10 Skjervøy 21 7 3 11 24
11 Tromsø II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Strømsgodset II 21 7 2 12 23
13 Bossekop 21 5 4 12 19
14 Ulfstind 21 4 2 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillestrøm II 21 68 53 +15 27
2 Harstad 21 67 33 +34 39
3 Fauske Sprint 21 58 68 -10 31
4 Fløya 21 56 33 +23 39
5 Alta 21 54 31 +23 39
6 Skjetten 21 52 42 +10 33
7 Skedsmo 21 50 25 +25 49
8 Strømsgodset II 21 41 48 -7 23
9 Tromsø II 21 40 38 +2 23
10 Finnsnes 21 39 34 +5 35
11 Kongsvinger II 21 38 58 -20 26
12 Ulfstind 21 36 77 -41 14
13 Bossekop 21 34 70 -36 19
14 Skjervøy 21 33 56 -23 24
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions