Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Strømsgodset II vs Tromsø II

Prediction Audit: Strømsgodset II vs Tromsø II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II
Aug 02, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Tromsø II Tromsø II

The model missed the final outcome (Tromsø II win 0–2).

The model had projected Strømsgodset II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Strømsgodset II Tromsø II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Strømsgodset II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Strømsgodset II -31.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Strømsgodset II 36.1% 68.1% -31.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 13.4% +16.3 pp Model Edge
Tromsø II 34.2% 18.6% +15.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Strømsgodset II's win probability at 68.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 31.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tromsø II win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Strømsgodset II; match finished Tromsø II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Strømsgodset II by 31.9 percentage points (68.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Tromsø II 34.2%
    • xG · Strømsgodset II 1.32 — Tromsø II 1.28
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 1.29 · Draw 6.56 · Tromsø II 4.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 68.1% · Draw 13.4% · Tromsø II 18.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 1.29 · Draw 6.56 · Tromsø II 4.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 68.1% · Draw 13.4% · Tromsø II 18.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tromsø II win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1950287

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tromsø II win · Strømsgodset II 0–2 Tromsø II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Strømsgodset II; market prices Strømsgodset II instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Strømsgodset II 1.32 xG vs Tromsø II 1.28 → Strømsgodset II 36.1%
  • Market: Strømsgodset II ~68.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 21 16 1 4 49
2 Harstad 21 12 3 6 39
3 Fløya 21 12 3 6 39
4 Alta 21 11 6 4 39
5 Finnsnes 21 11 2 8 35
6 Skjetten 21 10 3 8 33
7 Fauske Sprint 21 9 4 8 31
8 Lillestrøm II 21 9 0 12 27
9 Kongsvinger II 21 8 2 11 26
10 Skjervøy 21 7 3 11 24
11 Tromsø II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Strømsgodset II 21 7 2 12 23
13 Bossekop 21 5 4 12 19
14 Ulfstind 21 4 2 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillestrøm II 21 68 53 +15 27
2 Harstad 21 67 33 +34 39
3 Fauske Sprint 21 58 68 -10 31
4 Fløya 21 56 33 +23 39
5 Alta 21 54 31 +23 39
6 Skjetten 21 52 42 +10 33
7 Skedsmo 21 50 25 +25 49
8 Strømsgodset II 21 41 48 -7 23
9 Tromsø II 21 40 38 +2 23
10 Finnsnes 21 39 34 +5 35
11 Kongsvinger II 21 38 58 -20 26
12 Ulfstind 21 36 77 -41 14
13 Bossekop 21 34 70 -36 19
14 Skjervøy 21 33 56 -23 24
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions