Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Tromsø II vs Ulfstind

Prediction Audit: Tromsø II vs Ulfstind Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tromsø II Tromsø II
Jul 25, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Ulfstind Ulfstind

The model missed the final outcome (Ulfstind win 1–3).

The model had projected Tromsø II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tromsø II Ulfstind ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tromsø II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tromsø II -27.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tromsø II 36.1% 63.3% -27.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 18.8% +10.8 pp Model Edge
Ulfstind 34.2% 17.9% +16.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tromsø II's win probability at 63.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ulfstind win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tromsø II; match finished Ulfstind

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tromsø II by 27.2 percentage points (63.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tromsø II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ulfstind 34.2%
    • xG · Tromsø II 1.32 — Ulfstind 1.28
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tromsø II 1.41 · Draw 4.67 · Ulfstind 4.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Tromsø II 62.9% · Draw 19.0% · Ulfstind 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tromsø II 1.42 · Draw 4.78 · Ulfstind 5.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Tromsø II 63.3% · Draw 18.8% · Ulfstind 17.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ulfstind win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453695

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ulfstind win · Tromsø II 1–3 Ulfstind
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Norwegian 3rd Division Group 5
  • Fixture: Tromsø II vs Ulfstind
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Tromsø II 1.32 — Ulfstind 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 21 16 1 4 49
2 Harstad 21 12 3 6 39
3 Fløya 21 12 3 6 39
4 Alta 21 11 6 4 39
5 Finnsnes 21 11 2 8 35
6 Skjetten 21 10 3 8 33
7 Fauske Sprint 21 9 4 8 31
8 Lillestrøm II 21 9 0 12 27
9 Kongsvinger II 21 8 2 11 26
10 Skjervøy 21 7 3 11 24
11 Tromsø II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Strømsgodset II 21 7 2 12 23
13 Bossekop 21 5 4 12 19
14 Ulfstind 21 4 2 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillestrøm II 21 68 53 +15 27
2 Harstad 21 67 33 +34 39
3 Fauske Sprint 21 58 68 -10 31
4 Fløya 21 56 33 +23 39
5 Alta 21 54 31 +23 39
6 Skjetten 21 52 42 +10 33
7 Skedsmo 21 50 25 +25 49
8 Strømsgodset II 21 41 48 -7 23
9 Tromsø II 21 40 38 +2 23
10 Finnsnes 21 39 34 +5 35
11 Kongsvinger II 21 38 58 -20 26
12 Ulfstind 21 36 77 -41 14
13 Bossekop 21 34 70 -36 19
14 Skjervøy 21 33 56 -23 24
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions