Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy

Prediction Audit: Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II
Jun 28, 2026 - 10:00
5 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 34%
Skjervøy Skjervøy

AI correctly predicted the Strømsgodset II win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Strømsgodset II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Strømsgodset II -11.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Strømsgodset II 40.7% 52.2% -11.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.6% 22.6% +5.0 pp Aligned
Skjervøy 31.7% 25.2% +6.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Strømsgodset II's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.7%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Strømsgodset II win 5–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Strømsgodset II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Strømsgodset II higher (52.2% vs model 40.7%, 11.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Strømsgodset II win 5–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 28, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 40.7% · Draw 27.6% · Skjervøy 31.8%
    • xG · Strømsgodset II 1.32 — Skjervøy 1.28
  2. Jun 28, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 1.70 · Draw 3.93 · Skjervøy 3.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 52.2% · Draw 22.6% · Skjervøy 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 28, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 1.70 · Draw 3.93 · Skjervøy 3.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 52.2% · Draw 22.6% · Skjervøy 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 28, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Strømsgodset II win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 42/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2611960

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Strømsgodset II win · Strømsgodset II 5–1 Skjervøy
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Strømsgodset II 1.32 — Skjervøy 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 21 16 1 4 49
2 Harstad 21 12 3 6 39
3 Fløya 21 12 3 6 39
4 Alta 21 11 6 4 39
5 Finnsnes 21 11 2 8 35
6 Skjetten 21 10 3 8 33
7 Fauske Sprint 21 9 4 8 31
8 Lillestrøm II 21 9 0 12 27
9 Kongsvinger II 21 8 2 11 26
10 Skjervøy 21 7 3 11 24
11 Tromsø II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Strømsgodset II 21 7 2 12 23
13 Bossekop 21 5 4 12 19
14 Ulfstind 21 4 2 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillestrøm II 21 68 53 +15 27
2 Harstad 21 67 33 +34 39
3 Fauske Sprint 21 58 68 -10 31
4 Fløya 21 56 33 +23 39
5 Alta 21 54 31 +23 39
6 Skjetten 21 52 42 +10 33
7 Skedsmo 21 50 25 +25 49
8 Strømsgodset II 21 41 48 -7 23
9 Tromsø II 21 40 38 +2 23
10 Finnsnes 21 39 34 +5 35
11 Kongsvinger II 21 38 58 -20 26
12 Ulfstind 21 36 77 -41 14
13 Bossekop 21 34 70 -36 19
14 Skjervøy 21 33 56 -23 24
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions