Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Stabæk II vs Vindbjart

Prediction Audit: Stabæk II vs Vindbjart Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stabæk II Stabæk II
Sep 13, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Vindbjart Vindbjart

The model missed the final outcome (Stabæk II win 3–1).

The model had projected Vindbjart at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vindbjart Stabæk II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Vindbjart higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vindbjart -21.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stabæk II 34.7% 23.9% +10.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 18.8% +10.9 pp Model Edge
Vindbjart 35.6% 57.3% -21.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Vindbjart's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 21.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Stabæk II win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vindbjart by 21.6 percentage points (57.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stabæk II 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Vindbjart 35.6%
    • xG · Stabæk II 1.29 — Vindbjart 1.31
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 3.71 · Draw 4.73 · Vindbjart 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 23.9% · Draw 18.8% · Vindbjart 57.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 3.71 · Draw 4.73 · Vindbjart 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 23.9% · Draw 18.8% · Vindbjart 57.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stabæk II win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7453999

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stabæk II win · Stabæk II 3–1 Vindbjart
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Stabæk II vs Vindbjart
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Stabæk II 1.29 — Vindbjart 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 21 13 6 2 45
2 Mandalskameratene 21 12 4 5 40
3 Vindbjart 21 12 2 7 38
4 Varhaug 21 10 6 5 36
5 Flekkerøy 21 11 3 7 36
6 Viking II 21 9 5 7 32
7 Brodd 21 8 3 10 27
8 Stabæk II 21 8 3 10 27
9 Våg 21 8 2 11 26
10 Staal Jørpeland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Odd II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Haugesund II 20 6 4 10 22
13 Hinna 20 5 5 10 20
14 Åkra 21 4 3 14 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 21 57 26 +31 45
2 Viking II 21 51 30 +21 32
3 Mandalskameratene 21 50 33 +17 40
4 Vindbjart 21 49 24 +25 38
5 Flekkerøy 21 43 35 +8 36
6 Stabæk II 21 43 48 -5 27
7 Staal Jørpeland 21 41 52 -11 23
8 Varhaug 21 40 30 +10 36
9 Brodd 21 39 42 -3 27
10 Haugesund II 20 37 55 -18 22
11 Odd II 21 36 49 -13 23
12 Hinna 20 36 57 -21 20
13 Våg 21 31 37 -6 26
14 Åkra 21 27 62 -35 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions