Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Flekkerøy vs Madla

Prediction Audit: Flekkerøy vs Madla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Flekkerøy Flekkerøy
Sep 05, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Madla Madla

The model missed the final outcome (Madla win 0–2).

The model had projected Flekkerøy at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Flekkerøy Madla ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Flekkerøy higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Flekkerøy -8.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Flekkerøy 36.1% 44.5% -8.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.2% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Madla 34.2% 31.3% +2.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Flekkerøy's win probability at 44.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Madla win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Flekkerøy. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Flekkerøy; match finished Madla

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Flekkerøy by 8.4 percentage points (44.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Flekkerøy 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Madla 34.2%
    • xG · Flekkerøy 1.32 — Madla 1.28
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Flekkerøy 2.00 · Draw 3.65 · Madla 2.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Flekkerøy 44.4% · Draw 24.3% · Madla 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Flekkerøy 2.02 · Draw 3.71 · Madla 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Flekkerøy 44.5% · Draw 24.2% · Madla 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Madla win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6137001

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Madla win · Flekkerøy 0–2 Madla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Flekkerøy vs Madla
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Flekkerøy 1.32 — Madla 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 21 13 6 2 45
2 Mandalskameratene 21 12 4 5 40
3 Vindbjart 21 12 2 7 38
4 Varhaug 21 10 6 5 36
5 Flekkerøy 21 11 3 7 36
6 Viking II 21 9 5 7 32
7 Brodd 21 8 3 10 27
8 Stabæk II 21 8 3 10 27
9 Våg 21 8 2 11 26
10 Staal Jørpeland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Odd II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Haugesund II 20 6 4 10 22
13 Hinna 20 5 5 10 20
14 Åkra 21 4 3 14 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 21 57 26 +31 45
2 Viking II 21 51 30 +21 32
3 Mandalskameratene 21 50 33 +17 40
4 Vindbjart 21 49 24 +25 38
5 Flekkerøy 21 43 35 +8 36
6 Stabæk II 21 43 48 -5 27
7 Staal Jørpeland 21 41 52 -11 23
8 Varhaug 21 40 30 +10 36
9 Brodd 21 39 42 -3 27
10 Haugesund II 20 37 55 -18 22
11 Odd II 21 36 49 -13 23
12 Hinna 20 36 57 -21 20
13 Våg 21 31 37 -6 26
14 Åkra 21 27 62 -35 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions