Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug

Prediction Audit: Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mandalskameratene Mandalskameratene
Aug 30, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Varhaug Varhaug

The model missed the final outcome (Varhaug win 0–2).

The model had projected Mandalskameratene at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mandalskameratene Varhaug ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Mandalskameratene; match finished Varhaug

Market lesson

The full-time result was Varhaug win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Mandalskameratene 1.32 — Varhaug 1.28
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Varhaug win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5128126

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Varhaug win · Mandalskameratene 0–2 Varhaug
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Mandalskameratene 1.32 — Varhaug 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 23 14 6 3 48
2 Mandalskameratene 23 13 4 6 43
3 Flekkerøy 23 12 3 8 39
4 Vindbjart 23 12 2 9 38
5 Varhaug 23 10 6 7 36
6 Viking II 23 10 5 8 35
7 Brodd 23 10 3 10 33
8 Stabæk II 23 10 3 10 33
9 Våg 23 10 2 11 32
10 Odd II 23 8 5 10 29
11 Staal Jørpeland 23 7 5 11 26
12 Hinna 23 6 5 12 23
13 Haugesund II 22 6 4 12 22
14 Åkra 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 23 60 28 +32 48
2 Viking II 23 57 34 +23 35
3 Mandalskameratene 23 54 34 +20 43
4 Vindbjart 23 51 31 +20 38
5 Stabæk II 23 48 49 -1 33
6 Flekkerøy 23 45 37 +8 39
7 Staal Jørpeland 23 45 58 -13 26
8 Brodd 23 44 42 +2 33
9 Varhaug 23 42 37 +5 36
10 Hinna 23 42 67 -25 23
11 Odd II 23 40 50 -10 29
12 Haugesund II 22 40 63 -23 22
13 Våg 23 39 38 +1 32
14 Åkra 22 27 66 -39 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions