Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Stabæk II vs Våg

Prediction Audit: Stabæk II vs Våg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stabæk II Stabæk II
Aug 09, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Våg Våg

The model missed the final outcome (Stabæk II win 2–0).

The model had projected Våg at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Våg Stabæk II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stabæk II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stabæk II -13.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stabæk II 34.7% 48.0% -13.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.8% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Våg 35.6% 29.3% +6.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Stabæk II's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Stabæk II win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Stabæk II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Våg; match finished Stabæk II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Våg by 13.3 percentage points (48.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stabæk II 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Våg 35.6%
    • xG · Stabæk II 1.29 — Våg 1.31
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 1.85 · Draw 3.90 · Våg 3.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 48.0% · Draw 22.8% · Våg 29.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 1.85 · Draw 3.90 · Våg 3.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 48.0% · Draw 22.8% · Våg 29.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stabæk II win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2962985

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stabæk II win · Stabæk II 2–0 Våg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Stabæk II vs Våg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Stabæk II 1.29 — Våg 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 21 13 6 2 45
2 Mandalskameratene 21 12 4 5 40
3 Vindbjart 21 12 2 7 38
4 Varhaug 21 10 6 5 36
5 Flekkerøy 21 11 3 7 36
6 Viking II 21 9 5 7 32
7 Brodd 21 8 3 10 27
8 Stabæk II 21 8 3 10 27
9 Våg 21 8 2 11 26
10 Staal Jørpeland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Odd II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Haugesund II 20 6 4 10 22
13 Hinna 20 5 5 10 20
14 Åkra 21 4 3 14 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 21 57 26 +31 45
2 Viking II 21 51 30 +21 32
3 Mandalskameratene 21 50 33 +17 40
4 Vindbjart 21 49 24 +25 38
5 Flekkerøy 21 43 35 +8 36
6 Stabæk II 21 43 48 -5 27
7 Staal Jørpeland 21 41 52 -11 23
8 Varhaug 21 40 30 +10 36
9 Brodd 21 39 42 -3 27
10 Haugesund II 20 37 55 -18 22
11 Odd II 21 36 49 -13 23
12 Hinna 20 36 57 -21 20
13 Våg 21 31 37 -6 26
14 Åkra 21 27 62 -35 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions