Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Varhaug vs Odd II

Prediction Audit: Varhaug vs Odd II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Varhaug Varhaug
Jun 28, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Odd II Odd II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Varhaug at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Varhaug Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Varhaug; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 28, 2026 · 20:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Varhaug 1.32 — Odd II 1.28
  2. Jun 28, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 10:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3169035

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Varhaug 2–2 Odd II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Varhaug vs Odd II
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Varhaug 1.32 — Odd II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 21 13 6 2 45
2 Mandalskameratene 22 13 4 5 43
3 Flekkerøy 22 12 3 7 39
4 Vindbjart 22 12 2 8 38
5 Varhaug 22 10 6 6 36
6 Viking II 21 9 5 7 32
7 Våg 22 9 2 11 29
8 Brodd 21 8 3 10 27
9 Stabæk II 21 8 3 10 27
10 Staal Jørpeland 22 7 5 10 26
11 Odd II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Hinna 22 6 5 11 23
13 Haugesund II 21 6 4 11 22
14 Åkra 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 21 57 26 +31 45
2 Mandalskameratene 22 54 33 +21 43
3 Viking II 21 51 30 +21 32
4 Vindbjart 22 50 26 +24 38
5 Flekkerøy 22 45 36 +9 39
6 Staal Jørpeland 22 45 54 -9 26
7 Stabæk II 21 43 48 -5 27
8 Hinna 22 42 63 -21 23
9 Varhaug 22 41 34 +7 36
10 Brodd 21 39 42 -3 27
11 Haugesund II 21 39 59 -20 22
12 Odd II 21 36 49 -13 23
13 Våg 22 35 38 -3 29
14 Åkra 22 27 66 -39 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions