Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Stabæk II vs Varhaug

Prediction Audit: Stabæk II vs Varhaug Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stabæk II Stabæk II
Jun 21, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.29
4 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Varhaug Varhaug

AI correctly predicted the Varhaug win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Varhaug Varhaug ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Varhaug win 1–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 19:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Stabæk II 1.29 — Varhaug 1.31
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Varhaug win · 1–4
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 14:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2518134

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Varhaug win · Stabæk II 1–4 Varhaug
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Stabæk II vs Varhaug
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Stabæk II 1.29 — Varhaug 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 22 13 6 3 45
2 Mandalskameratene 22 13 4 5 43
3 Flekkerøy 22 12 3 7 39
4 Vindbjart 22 12 2 8 38
5 Varhaug 22 10 6 6 36
6 Viking II 21 9 5 7 32
7 Stabæk II 22 9 3 10 30
8 Brodd 22 9 3 10 30
9 Våg 22 9 2 11 29
10 Staal Jørpeland 22 7 5 10 26
11 Odd II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Hinna 22 6 5 11 23
13 Haugesund II 22 6 4 12 22
14 Åkra 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 22 57 27 +30 45
2 Mandalskameratene 22 54 33 +21 43
3 Viking II 21 51 30 +21 32
4 Vindbjart 22 50 26 +24 38
5 Stabæk II 22 47 49 -2 30
6 Flekkerøy 22 45 36 +9 39
7 Staal Jørpeland 22 45 54 -9 26
8 Hinna 22 42 63 -21 23
9 Varhaug 22 41 34 +7 36
10 Brodd 22 40 42 -2 30
11 Haugesund II 22 40 63 -23 22
12 Odd II 21 36 49 -13 23
13 Våg 22 35 38 -3 29
14 Åkra 22 27 66 -39 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions