Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Fyllingsdalen vs Stord

Prediction Audit: Fyllingsdalen vs Stord Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fyllingsdalen Fyllingsdalen
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Stord Stord

The model missed the final outcome (Stord win 1–2).

The model had projected Fyllingsdalen at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fyllingsdalen Stord ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stord higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stord -34.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fyllingsdalen 36.1% 15.7% +20.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 15.5% +14.1 pp Model Edge
Stord 34.2% 68.8% -34.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Stord's win probability at 68.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 34.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Stord win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fyllingsdalen by 34.5 percentage points (70.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fyllingsdalen 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Stord 34.2%
    • xG · Fyllingsdalen 1.32 — Stord 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fyllingsdalen 5.60 · Draw 5.67 · Stord 1.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Fyllingsdalen 15.7% · Draw 15.5% · Stord 68.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Fyllingsdalen 5.60 · Draw 5.67 · Stord 1.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Fyllingsdalen 15.7% · Draw 15.5% · Stord 68.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stord win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10081926

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stord win · Fyllingsdalen 1–2 Stord
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Fyllingsdalen; market prices Stord instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Fyllingsdalen 1.32 xG vs Stord 1.28 → Fyllingsdalen 36.1%
  • Market: Stord ~15.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming 3. Division - Girone 3 Matches Track Fyllingsdalen Next Match Prediction Track Stord Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 21 16 0 5 48
2 Djerv 21 13 5 3 44
3 Askøy 21 12 6 3 42
4 Brann II 21 10 6 5 36
5 Vard 21 10 5 6 35
6 Fana 21 11 2 8 35
7 Austevoll 21 8 6 7 30
8 Førde 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sogndal II 21 8 3 10 27
10 Stord 21 4 9 8 21
11 Varegg 21 5 5 11 20
12 Åsane II 21 4 7 10 19
13 Gneist 21 5 3 13 18
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 21 74 39 +35 48
2 Fana 21 56 43 +13 35
3 Vard 21 55 40 +15 35
4 Sogndal II 21 54 43 +11 27
5 Djerv 21 53 30 +23 44
6 Brann II 21 53 40 +13 36
7 Askøy 21 40 26 +14 42
8 Stord 21 40 57 -17 21
9 Austevoll 21 39 47 -8 30
10 Åsane II 21 36 47 -11 19
11 Gneist 21 36 57 -21 18
12 Førde 21 35 46 -11 28
13 Varegg 21 33 42 -9 20
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 17 64 -47 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions