Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Os vs Førde

Prediction Audit: Os vs Førde Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Os Os
Sep 05, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Førde Førde

AI correctly predicted the Os win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Os Os ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Os higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Os -41.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Os 36.1% 77.5% -41.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 11.0% +18.6 pp Model Edge
Førde 34.2% 11.5% +22.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Os's win probability at 77.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 41.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Os win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Os higher (77.5% vs model 36.1%, 41.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Os win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Os 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Førde 34.2%
    • xG · Os 1.32 — Førde 1.28
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Os 1.16 · Draw 8.16 · Førde 7.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Os 77.5% · Draw 11.0% · Førde 11.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Os 1.16 · Draw 8.16 · Førde 7.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Os 77.5% · Draw 11.0% · Førde 11.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Os win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (41 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6136920

Closing Odds 1.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Os win · Os 2–0 Førde
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Os; market prices Os instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Os 1.32 xG vs Førde 1.28 → Os 36.1%
  • Market: Os ~77.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 21 16 0 5 48
2 Djerv 21 13 5 3 44
3 Askøy 21 12 6 3 42
4 Brann II 21 10 6 5 36
5 Vard 21 10 5 6 35
6 Fana 21 11 2 8 35
7 Austevoll 21 8 6 7 30
8 Førde 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sogndal II 21 8 3 10 27
10 Stord 21 4 9 8 21
11 Varegg 21 5 5 11 20
12 Åsane II 21 4 7 10 19
13 Gneist 21 5 3 13 18
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 21 74 39 +35 48
2 Fana 21 56 43 +13 35
3 Vard 21 55 40 +15 35
4 Sogndal II 21 54 43 +11 27
5 Djerv 21 53 30 +23 44
6 Brann II 21 53 40 +13 36
7 Askøy 21 40 26 +14 42
8 Stord 21 40 57 -17 21
9 Austevoll 21 39 47 -8 30
10 Åsane II 21 36 47 -11 19
11 Gneist 21 36 57 -21 18
12 Førde 21 35 46 -11 28
13 Varegg 21 33 42 -9 20
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 17 64 -47 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions