Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Stord vs Åsane II

Prediction Audit: Stord vs Åsane II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stord Stord
Aug 17, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Åsane II Åsane II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Stord at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Stord Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Åsane II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Åsane II -8.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stord 36.1% 35.1% +1.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Åsane II 34.2% 42.9% -8.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Åsane II's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Åsane II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Stord; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Stord by 8.7 percentage points (44.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stord 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Åsane II 34.2%
    • xG · Stord 1.32 — Åsane II 1.28
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stord 2.53 · Draw 4.05 · Åsane II 2.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Stord 35.1% · Draw 21.9% · Åsane II 42.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stord 2.53 · Draw 4.05 · Åsane II 2.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Stord 35.1% · Draw 21.9% · Åsane II 42.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3618176

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Stord 2–2 Åsane II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 3
  • Fixture: Stord vs Åsane II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Stord 1.32 — Åsane II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 21 16 0 5 48
2 Djerv 21 13 5 3 44
3 Askøy 21 12 6 3 42
4 Brann II 21 10 6 5 36
5 Vard 21 10 5 6 35
6 Fana 21 11 2 8 35
7 Austevoll 21 8 6 7 30
8 Førde 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sogndal II 21 8 3 10 27
10 Stord 21 4 9 8 21
11 Varegg 21 5 5 11 20
12 Åsane II 21 4 7 10 19
13 Gneist 21 5 3 13 18
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 21 74 39 +35 48
2 Fana 21 56 43 +13 35
3 Vard 21 55 40 +15 35
4 Sogndal II 21 54 43 +11 27
5 Djerv 21 53 30 +23 44
6 Brann II 21 53 40 +13 36
7 Askøy 21 40 26 +14 42
8 Stord 21 40 57 -17 21
9 Austevoll 21 39 47 -8 30
10 Åsane II 21 36 47 -11 19
11 Gneist 21 36 57 -21 18
12 Førde 21 35 46 -11 28
13 Varegg 21 33 42 -9 20
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 17 64 -47 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions