Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Brann II vs Stord

Prediction Audit: Brann II vs Stord Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Brann II Brann II
Aug 03, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Stord Stord

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Brann II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Brann II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Brann II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Brann II -34.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Brann II 36.1% 70.2% -34.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 16.2% +13.4 pp Model Edge
Stord 34.2% 13.6% +20.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Brann II's win probability at 70.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 34.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Brann II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Brann II by 34.1 percentage points (70.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Brann II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Stord 34.2%
    • xG · Brann II 1.32 — Stord 1.28
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Brann II 1.26 · Draw 5.46 · Stord 6.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Brann II 70.2% · Draw 16.2% · Stord 13.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Brann II 1.26 · Draw 5.46 · Stord 6.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Brann II 70.2% · Draw 16.2% · Stord 13.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2132451

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Brann II 1–1 Stord
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Brann II; market prices Brann II instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Brann II 1.32 xG vs Stord 1.28 → Brann II 36.1%
  • Market: Brann II ~70.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 21 16 0 5 48
2 Djerv 21 13 5 3 44
3 Askøy 21 12 6 3 42
4 Brann II 21 10 6 5 36
5 Vard 21 10 5 6 35
6 Fana 21 11 2 8 35
7 Austevoll 21 8 6 7 30
8 Førde 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sogndal II 21 8 3 10 27
10 Stord 21 4 9 8 21
11 Varegg 21 5 5 11 20
12 Åsane II 21 4 7 10 19
13 Gneist 21 5 3 13 18
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 21 74 39 +35 48
2 Fana 21 56 43 +13 35
3 Vard 21 55 40 +15 35
4 Sogndal II 21 54 43 +11 27
5 Djerv 21 53 30 +23 44
6 Brann II 21 53 40 +13 36
7 Askøy 21 40 26 +14 42
8 Stord 21 40 57 -17 21
9 Austevoll 21 39 47 -8 30
10 Åsane II 21 36 47 -11 19
11 Gneist 21 36 57 -21 18
12 Førde 21 35 46 -11 28
13 Varegg 21 33 42 -9 20
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 17 64 -47 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions