Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Gneist vs Brann II

Prediction Audit: Gneist vs Brann II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gneist Gneist
Jul 27, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Brann II Brann II

The model missed the final outcome (Brann II win 0–3).

The model had projected Gneist at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gneist Brann II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Brann II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Brann II -18.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gneist 36.1% 26.4% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.9% +8.8 pp Model Higher
Brann II 34.2% 52.8% -18.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Brann II's win probability at 52.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 18.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Brann II win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Brann II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gneist by 18.5 percentage points (54.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 27, 2026 · 19:18 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gneist 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Brann II 34.2%
    • xG · Gneist 1.32 — Brann II 1.28
  2. Jul 27, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gneist 3.36 · Draw 4.25 · Brann II 1.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Gneist 26.4% · Draw 20.9% · Brann II 52.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 27, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gneist 3.36 · Draw 4.25 · Brann II 1.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Gneist 26.4% · Draw 20.9% · Brann II 52.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Brann II win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452751

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Brann II win · Gneist 0–3 Brann II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 3
  • Fixture: Gneist vs Brann II
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Gneist 1.32 — Brann II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 21 16 0 5 48
2 Djerv 21 13 5 3 44
3 Askøy 21 12 6 3 42
4 Brann II 21 10 6 5 36
5 Vard 21 10 5 6 35
6 Fana 21 11 2 8 35
7 Austevoll 21 8 6 7 30
8 Førde 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sogndal II 21 8 3 10 27
10 Stord 21 4 9 8 21
11 Varegg 21 5 5 11 20
12 Åsane II 21 4 7 10 19
13 Gneist 21 5 3 13 18
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 21 74 39 +35 48
2 Fana 21 56 43 +13 35
3 Vard 21 55 40 +15 35
4 Sogndal II 21 54 43 +11 27
5 Djerv 21 53 30 +23 44
6 Brann II 21 53 40 +13 36
7 Askøy 21 40 26 +14 42
8 Stord 21 40 57 -17 21
9 Austevoll 21 39 47 -8 30
10 Åsane II 21 36 47 -11 19
11 Gneist 21 36 57 -21 18
12 Førde 21 35 46 -11 28
13 Varegg 21 33 42 -9 20
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 17 64 -47 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions