Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 / Fyllingsdalen vs Åsane II

Prediction Audit: Fyllingsdalen vs Åsane II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fyllingsdalen Fyllingsdalen
Jul 26, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
Åsane II Åsane II

The model missed the final outcome (Åsane II win 2–4).

The model had projected Fyllingsdalen at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fyllingsdalen Åsane II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Åsane II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Åsane II -6.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fyllingsdalen 36.1% 35.8% +0.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 23.2% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Åsane II 34.2% 41.0% -6.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Åsane II's win probability at 41.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Åsane II win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Åsane II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Fyllingsdalen; match finished Åsane II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fyllingsdalen by 6.7 percentage points (42.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fyllingsdalen 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Åsane II 34.2%
    • xG · Fyllingsdalen 1.32 — Åsane II 1.28
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fyllingsdalen 2.47 · Draw 3.81 · Åsane II 2.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Fyllingsdalen 35.8% · Draw 23.2% · Åsane II 41.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Fyllingsdalen 2.47 · Draw 3.81 · Åsane II 2.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Fyllingsdalen 35.8% · Draw 23.2% · Åsane II 41.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Åsane II win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449254

Closing Odds 2.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Åsane II win · Fyllingsdalen 2–4 Åsane II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Norwegian 3rd Division Group 3
  • Fixture: Fyllingsdalen vs Åsane II
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Fyllingsdalen 1.32 — Åsane II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. Division - Girone 3 Matches Track Fyllingsdalen Next Match Prediction Track Åsane II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Fyllingsdalen & Åsane II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. Division - Girone 3 3. Division - Girone 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Os 21 16 0 5 48
2 Djerv 21 13 5 3 44
3 Askøy 21 12 6 3 42
4 Brann II 21 10 6 5 36
5 Vard 21 10 5 6 35
6 Fana 21 11 2 8 35
7 Austevoll 21 8 6 7 30
8 Førde 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sogndal II 21 8 3 10 27
10 Stord 21 4 9 8 21
11 Varegg 21 5 5 11 20
12 Åsane II 21 4 7 10 19
13 Gneist 21 5 3 13 18
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Os 21 74 39 +35 48
2 Fana 21 56 43 +13 35
3 Vard 21 55 40 +15 35
4 Sogndal II 21 54 43 +11 27
5 Djerv 21 53 30 +23 44
6 Brann II 21 53 40 +13 36
7 Askøy 21 40 26 +14 42
8 Stord 21 40 57 -17 21
9 Austevoll 21 39 47 -8 30
10 Åsane II 21 36 47 -11 19
11 Gneist 21 36 57 -21 18
12 Førde 21 35 46 -11 28
13 Varegg 21 33 42 -9 20
14 Fyllingsdalen 21 17 64 -47 6
3. Division - Girone 3 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions