Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / Aalesund II vs Rosenborg II

Prediction Audit: Aalesund II vs Rosenborg II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aalesund II Aalesund II
Sep 25, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.23
7 1.37
xG Accuracy: 20%
Rosenborg II Rosenborg II

AI correctly predicted the Rosenborg II win.

The match finished 1–7, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rosenborg II Rosenborg II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-7 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rosenborg II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rosenborg II -12.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aalesund II 31.9% 26.9% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Rosenborg II 38.5% 51.3% -12.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Rosenborg II's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rosenborg II win 1–7).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rosenborg II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rosenborg II higher (51.3% vs model 38.5%, 12.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rosenborg II win 1–7).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aalesund II 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Rosenborg II 38.5%
    • xG · Aalesund II 1.23 — Rosenborg II 1.37
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aalesund II 3.30 · Draw 4.06 · Rosenborg II 1.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Aalesund II 26.9% · Draw 21.9% · Rosenborg II 51.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Aalesund II 3.30 · Draw 4.06 · Rosenborg II 1.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Aalesund II 26.9% · Draw 21.9% · Rosenborg II 51.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rosenborg II win · 1–7
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9565483

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rosenborg II win · Aalesund II 1–7 Rosenborg II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 2
  • Fixture: Aalesund II vs Rosenborg II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Aalesund II 1.23 — Rosenborg II 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 20.7% · Probability edge: +31.1 pts · Est. EV: +148.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 21 14 4 3 46
2 Strindheim 21 13 4 4 43
3 Melhus 21 10 5 6 35
4 Byåsen 21 10 4 7 34
5 Rosenborg II 21 9 4 8 31
6 Herd 21 8 5 8 29
7 Molde II 21 8 5 8 29
8 Spjelkavik 21 8 4 9 28
9 Nardo 20 8 2 10 26
10 Ranheim II 21 6 5 10 23
11 NTNUI 21 5 7 9 22
12 Kvik Trondheim 21 6 4 11 22
13 Orkla 21 5 5 11 20
14 Aalesund II 20 6 2 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strindheim 21 57 30 +27 43
2 Volda 21 55 23 +32 46
3 Molde II 21 55 67 -12 29
4 Ranheim II 21 53 69 -16 23
5 Rosenborg II 21 49 36 +13 31
6 Melhus 21 48 27 +21 35
7 Byåsen 21 47 39 +8 34
8 Nardo 20 47 45 +2 26
9 Herd 21 45 38 +7 29
10 Spjelkavik 21 39 43 -4 28
11 Orkla 21 39 58 -19 20
12 Aalesund II 20 37 59 -22 20
13 NTNUI 21 31 47 -16 22
14 Kvik Trondheim 21 31 52 -21 22
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions