Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / Byåsen vs Volda

Prediction Audit: Byåsen vs Volda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Byåsen Byåsen
Aug 15, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 49%
Volda Volda

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Volda at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Volda Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Volda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Volda -13.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Byåsen 31.9% 25.3% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.1% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Volda 38.5% 51.5% -13.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Volda's win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Volda than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Volda; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Volda by 13.0 percentage points (51.5% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Byåsen 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Volda 38.5%
    • xG · Byåsen 1.23 — Volda 1.37
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Byåsen 3.50 · Draw 3.83 · Volda 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Byåsen 25.3% · Draw 23.1% · Volda 51.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Byåsen 3.50 · Draw 3.83 · Volda 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Byåsen 25.3% · Draw 23.1% · Volda 51.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3341071

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Byåsen 0–0 Volda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 2
  • Fixture: Byåsen vs Volda
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Byåsen 1.23 — Volda 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 21 14 4 3 46
2 Strindheim 21 13 4 4 43
3 Melhus 21 10 5 6 35
4 Byåsen 21 10 4 7 34
5 Rosenborg II 21 9 4 8 31
6 Herd 21 8 5 8 29
7 Molde II 21 8 5 8 29
8 Spjelkavik 21 8 4 9 28
9 Nardo 20 8 2 10 26
10 Ranheim II 21 6 5 10 23
11 NTNUI 21 5 7 9 22
12 Kvik Trondheim 21 6 4 11 22
13 Orkla 21 5 5 11 20
14 Aalesund II 20 6 2 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strindheim 21 57 30 +27 43
2 Volda 21 55 23 +32 46
3 Molde II 21 55 67 -12 29
4 Ranheim II 21 53 69 -16 23
5 Rosenborg II 21 49 36 +13 31
6 Melhus 21 48 27 +21 35
7 Byåsen 21 47 39 +8 34
8 Nardo 20 47 45 +2 26
9 Herd 21 45 38 +7 29
10 Spjelkavik 21 39 43 -4 28
11 Orkla 21 39 58 -19 20
12 Aalesund II 20 37 59 -22 20
13 NTNUI 21 31 47 -16 22
14 Kvik Trondheim 21 31 52 -21 22
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions