Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / Rosenborg II vs Ranheim II

Prediction Audit: Rosenborg II vs Ranheim II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rosenborg II Rosenborg II
Aug 10, 2026 - 17:00
7 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 20%
Ranheim II Ranheim II

AI correctly predicted the Rosenborg II win.

The match finished 7–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rosenborg II Rosenborg II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 7-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rosenborg II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rosenborg II -23.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rosenborg II 39.9% 63.9% -23.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 17.8% +11.7 pp Model Edge
Ranheim II 30.6% 18.3% +12.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Rosenborg II's win probability at 63.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rosenborg II win 7–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rosenborg II higher (63.8% vs model 39.9%, 23.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rosenborg II win 7–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rosenborg II 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Ranheim II 30.6%
    • xG · Rosenborg II 1.40 — Ranheim II 1.20
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rosenborg II 1.39 · Draw 4.99 · Ranheim II 4.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Rosenborg II 63.9% · Draw 17.8% · Ranheim II 18.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rosenborg II 1.39 · Draw 4.99 · Ranheim II 4.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Rosenborg II 63.9% · Draw 17.8% · Ranheim II 18.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rosenborg II win · 7–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2972299

Closing Odds 1.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rosenborg II win · Rosenborg II 7–1 Ranheim II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 2
  • Fixture: Rosenborg II vs Ranheim II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Rosenborg II 1.4 — Ranheim II 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 21 14 4 3 46
2 Strindheim 21 13 4 4 43
3 Melhus 22 11 5 6 38
4 Byåsen 21 10 4 7 34
5 Molde II 22 9 5 8 32
6 Rosenborg II 22 9 4 9 31
7 Herd 22 8 5 9 29
8 Spjelkavik 21 8 4 9 28
9 Nardo 20 8 2 10 26
10 Ranheim II 21 6 5 10 23
11 NTNUI 21 5 7 9 22
12 Kvik Trondheim 21 6 4 11 22
13 Orkla 21 5 5 11 20
14 Aalesund II 20 6 2 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Molde II 22 61 69 -8 32
2 Strindheim 21 57 30 +27 43
3 Volda 21 55 23 +32 46
4 Ranheim II 21 53 69 -16 23
5 Melhus 22 52 28 +24 38
6 Rosenborg II 22 50 40 +10 31
7 Byåsen 21 47 39 +8 34
8 Herd 22 47 44 +3 29
9 Nardo 20 47 45 +2 26
10 Spjelkavik 21 39 43 -4 28
11 Orkla 21 39 58 -19 20
12 Aalesund II 20 37 59 -22 20
13 NTNUI 21 31 47 -16 22
14 Kvik Trondheim 21 31 52 -21 22
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions