Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / Molde II vs Byåsen

Prediction Audit: Molde II vs Byåsen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Molde II Molde II
Jul 25, 2026 - 13:00
6 1.28
6 1.32
xG Accuracy: 8%
Byåsen Byåsen

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 6–6).

The model had projected Byåsen at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (12 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Byåsen Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Byåsen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Byåsen -8.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Molde II 33.2% 30.4% +2.9 pp Aligned
Draw 27.3% 21.6% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Byåsen 39.5% 48.1% -8.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Byåsen's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 6–6.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Byåsen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 12 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (12 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Byåsen; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Byåsen by 8.6 percentage points (48.1% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Molde II 33.2% · Draw 27.3% · Byåsen 39.5%
    • xG · Molde II 1.28 — Byåsen 1.32
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Molde II 2.93 · Draw 4.12 · Byåsen 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Molde II 30.4% · Draw 21.6% · Byåsen 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Molde II 2.93 · Draw 4.12 · Byåsen 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Molde II 30.4% · Draw 21.6% · Byåsen 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 6–6
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 57/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453662

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Molde II 6–6 Byåsen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Norwegian 3rd Division Group 2
  • Fixture: Molde II vs Byåsen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Molde II 1.28 — Byåsen 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 21 14 4 3 46
2 Strindheim 21 13 4 4 43
3 Melhus 21 10 5 6 35
4 Byåsen 21 10 4 7 34
5 Rosenborg II 21 9 4 8 31
6 Herd 21 8 5 8 29
7 Molde II 21 8 5 8 29
8 Spjelkavik 21 8 4 9 28
9 Nardo 20 8 2 10 26
10 Ranheim II 21 6 5 10 23
11 NTNUI 21 5 7 9 22
12 Kvik Trondheim 21 6 4 11 22
13 Orkla 21 5 5 11 20
14 Aalesund II 20 6 2 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strindheim 21 57 30 +27 43
2 Volda 21 55 23 +32 46
3 Molde II 21 55 67 -12 29
4 Ranheim II 21 53 69 -16 23
5 Rosenborg II 21 49 36 +13 31
6 Melhus 21 48 27 +21 35
7 Byåsen 21 47 39 +8 34
8 Nardo 20 47 45 +2 26
9 Herd 21 45 38 +7 29
10 Spjelkavik 21 39 43 -4 28
11 Orkla 21 39 58 -19 20
12 Aalesund II 20 37 59 -22 20
13 NTNUI 21 31 47 -16 22
14 Kvik Trondheim 21 31 52 -21 22
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions