Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / Melhus vs Rosenborg II

Prediction Audit: Melhus vs Rosenborg II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Melhus Melhus
Jun 19, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Rosenborg II Rosenborg II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Melhus at 42.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Melhus Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Melhus higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Melhus -15.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Melhus 42.2% 57.3% -15.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.5% 21.3% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Rosenborg II 30.3% 21.4% +9.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Melhus's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.2%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Melhus than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Melhus; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Melhus by 15.2 percentage points (57.4% vs model 42.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 19, 2026 · 19:42 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Melhus 42.2% · Draw 27.5% · Rosenborg II 30.3%
    • xG · Melhus 1.32 — Rosenborg II 1.28
  2. Jun 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Melhus 1.55 · Draw 4.17 · Rosenborg II 4.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Melhus 57.3% · Draw 21.3% · Rosenborg II 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 19, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Melhus 1.55 · Draw 4.17 · Rosenborg II 4.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Melhus 57.3% · Draw 21.3% · Rosenborg II 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 19, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1624310

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Melhus 1–1 Rosenborg II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 2
  • Fixture: Melhus vs Rosenborg II
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Melhus 1.32 — Rosenborg II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 21 14 4 3 46
2 Strindheim 21 13 4 4 43
3 Melhus 21 10 5 6 35
4 Byåsen 21 10 4 7 34
5 Rosenborg II 21 9 4 8 31
6 Herd 21 8 5 8 29
7 Molde II 21 8 5 8 29
8 Spjelkavik 21 8 4 9 28
9 Nardo 20 8 2 10 26
10 Ranheim II 21 6 5 10 23
11 NTNUI 21 5 7 9 22
12 Kvik Trondheim 21 6 4 11 22
13 Orkla 21 5 5 11 20
14 Aalesund II 20 6 2 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Strindheim 21 57 30 +27 43
2 Volda 21 55 23 +32 46
3 Molde II 21 55 67 -12 29
4 Ranheim II 21 53 69 -16 23
5 Rosenborg II 21 49 36 +13 31
6 Melhus 21 48 27 +21 35
7 Byåsen 21 47 39 +8 34
8 Nardo 20 47 45 +2 26
9 Herd 21 45 38 +7 29
10 Spjelkavik 21 39 43 -4 28
11 Orkla 21 39 58 -19 20
12 Aalesund II 20 37 59 -22 20
13 NTNUI 21 31 47 -16 22
14 Kvik Trondheim 21 31 52 -21 22
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions