Prediction Audit: SF Grei vs Bærum Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SF Grei

Aug 15, 2026 - 11:00

1 1.24

7 1.36

xG Accuracy: 20%

Bærum

AI correctly predicted the Bærum win.

The match finished 1–7, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Bærum Bærum ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-7 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bærum win 1–7).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · SF Grei 1.24 — Bærum 1.36
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Bærum win · 1–7
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3340957

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bærum win · SF Grei 1–7 Bærum

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. Division - Girone 1
Fixture: SF Grei vs Bærum
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): SF Grei 1.24 — Bærum 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Asker	22	19	1	2	58
2	Gamle Oslo	23	14	2	7	44
3	Heming	22	13	4	5	43
4	Vålerenga II	23	13	1	9	40
5	IF Ready	23	11	6	6	39
6	Bærum	23	11	2	10	35
7	Union Carl Berner	23	11	2	10	35
8	Frigg	22	9	6	7	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	8	2	13	26
10	KFUM II	22	7	3	12	24
11	Ullern	23	7	2	14	23
12	SF Grei	23	7	1	15	22
13	Nordstrand	23	6	2	15	20
14	Konnerud	23	5	2	16	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Asker	22	78	31	+47	58
2	Gamle Oslo	23	70	42	+28	44
3	Bærum	23	64	45	+19	35
4	IF Ready	23	59	43	+16	39
5	Heming	22	58	36	+22	43
6	Vålerenga II	23	54	59	-5	40
7	Frigg	22	51	49	+2	33
8	KFUM II	22	43	62	-19	24
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	43	67	-24	26
10	Ullern	23	42	60	-18	23
11	SF Grei	23	42	72	-30	22
12	Union Carl Berner	23	40	36	+4	35
13	Nordstrand	23	36	52	-16	20
14	Konnerud	23	36	62	-26	17