Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 / Skeid vs Grorud

Prediction Audit: Skeid vs Grorud Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Skeid Skeid
Aug 01, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.35
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Grorud Grorud

The model missed the final outcome (Grorud win 1–5).

The model had projected Skeid at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skeid Grorud ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Skeid; match finished Grorud

Market lesson

The full-time result was Grorud win 1–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Skeid 1.35 — Grorud 1.25
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Grorud win · 1–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1794419

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Grorud win · Skeid 1–5 Grorud
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 2
  • Fixture: Skeid vs Grorud
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Skeid 1.35 — Grorud 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 2 2. Division - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eidsvold 21 16 3 2 51
2 Kjelsås 22 15 2 5 47
3 Levanger 21 15 0 6 45
4 Hønefoss 22 14 3 5 45
5 Grorud 22 13 4 5 43
6 Stjørdals-Blink 22 10 3 9 33
7 Lørenskog 22 10 3 9 33
8 Tromsdalen Uil 21 9 2 10 29
9 Junkeren 21 8 4 9 28
10 Rana 21 8 3 10 27
11 Skeid 22 6 2 14 20
12 Follo 22 3 5 14 14
13 Ull/Kisa 22 3 1 18 10
14 Trygg/Lade 21 2 3 16 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hønefoss 22 56 33 +23 45
2 Eidsvold 21 52 17 +35 51
3 Levanger 21 51 23 +28 45
4 Kjelsås 22 51 32 +19 47
5 Grorud 22 40 20 +20 43
6 Stjørdals-Blink 22 38 38 0 33
7 Rana 21 36 38 -2 27
8 Tromsdalen Uil 21 35 36 -1 29
9 Lørenskog 22 33 37 -4 33
10 Skeid 22 32 50 -18 20
11 Junkeren 21 29 35 -6 28
12 Ull/Kisa 22 26 72 -46 10
13 Follo 22 25 46 -21 14
14 Trygg/Lade 21 24 51 -27 9
2. Division - Group 2 Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions