Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 / Tromsdalen Uil vs Follo

Prediction Audit: Tromsdalen Uil vs Follo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tromsdalen Uil Tromsdalen Uil
Jul 25, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 49%
Follo Follo

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Tromsdalen Uil at 48.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tromsdalen Uil Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tromsdalen Uil higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tromsdalen Uil -20.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tromsdalen Uil 48.9% 68.9% -20.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.4% 17.3% +9.1 pp Model Higher
Follo 24.7% 13.8% +10.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tromsdalen Uil's win probability at 68.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.9%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tromsdalen Uil than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Tromsdalen Uil; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tromsdalen Uil by 20.0 percentage points (68.9% vs model 48.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tromsdalen Uil 49.0% · Draw 26.4% · Follo 24.7%
    • xG · Tromsdalen Uil 1.44 — Follo 1.16
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tromsdalen Uil 1.35 · Draw 5.37 · Follo 6.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Tromsdalen Uil 68.9% · Draw 17.3% · Follo 13.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Tromsdalen Uil 1.35 · Draw 5.37 · Follo 6.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Tromsdalen Uil 68.9% · Draw 17.3% · Follo 13.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456215

Closing Odds 1.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tromsdalen Uil 0–0 Follo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Norwegian 2nd Division Group 2
  • Fixture: Tromsdalen Uil vs Follo
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Tromsdalen Uil 1.44 — Follo 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 2 2. Division - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eidsvold 20 15 3 2 48
2 Levanger 20 15 0 5 45
3 Kjelsås 21 14 2 5 44
4 Hønefoss 20 13 3 4 42
5 Grorud 20 11 4 5 37
6 Stjørdals-Blink 21 9 3 9 30
7 Lørenskog 20 9 3 8 30
8 Tromsdalen Uil 20 9 2 9 29
9 Junkeren 20 8 4 8 28
10 Rana 20 7 3 10 24
11 Skeid 20 5 2 13 17
12 Follo 21 3 5 13 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 3 1 17 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 2 3 15 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Levanger 20 51 21 +30 45
2 Hønefoss 20 51 28 +23 42
3 Kjelsås 21 49 31 +18 44
4 Eidsvold 20 48 16 +32 48
5 Stjørdals-Blink 21 37 38 -1 30
6 Grorud 20 34 20 +14 37
7 Tromsdalen Uil 20 34 34 0 29
8 Rana 20 34 38 -4 24
9 Lørenskog 20 29 32 -3 30
10 Junkeren 20 29 33 -4 28
11 Skeid 20 27 43 -16 17
12 Follo 21 25 45 -20 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 25 70 -45 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 23 47 -24 9
2. Division - Group 2 Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions