Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 / Hønefoss vs Skeid

Prediction Audit: Hønefoss vs Skeid Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hønefoss Hønefoss
Jul 25, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.23
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 56%
Skeid Skeid

The model missed the final outcome (Hønefoss win 3–1).

The model had projected Skeid at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skeid Hønefoss ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hønefoss higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hønefoss -25.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hønefoss 31.9% 57.6% -25.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.8% +7.8 pp Model Higher
Skeid 38.5% 20.6% +17.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Hønefoss's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 25.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hønefoss win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Skeid; match finished Hønefoss

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Skeid by 25.6 percentage points (64.1% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hønefoss 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Skeid 38.5%
    • xG · Hønefoss 1.23 — Skeid 1.37
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hønefoss 1.61 · Draw 4.25 · Skeid 4.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Hønefoss 57.6% · Draw 21.8% · Skeid 20.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hønefoss 1.61 · Draw 4.25 · Skeid 4.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Hønefoss 57.6% · Draw 21.8% · Skeid 20.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hønefoss win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453475

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hønefoss win · Hønefoss 3–1 Skeid
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Norwegian 2nd Division Group 2
  • Fixture: Hønefoss vs Skeid
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Hønefoss 1.23 — Skeid 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 2 2. Division - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eidsvold 20 15 3 2 48
2 Levanger 20 15 0 5 45
3 Kjelsås 21 14 2 5 44
4 Hønefoss 20 13 3 4 42
5 Grorud 20 11 4 5 37
6 Stjørdals-Blink 21 9 3 9 30
7 Lørenskog 20 9 3 8 30
8 Tromsdalen Uil 20 9 2 9 29
9 Junkeren 20 8 4 8 28
10 Rana 20 7 3 10 24
11 Skeid 20 5 2 13 17
12 Follo 21 3 5 13 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 3 1 17 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 2 3 15 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Levanger 20 51 21 +30 45
2 Hønefoss 20 51 28 +23 42
3 Kjelsås 21 49 31 +18 44
4 Eidsvold 20 48 16 +32 48
5 Stjørdals-Blink 21 37 38 -1 30
6 Grorud 20 34 20 +14 37
7 Tromsdalen Uil 20 34 34 0 29
8 Rana 20 34 38 -4 24
9 Lørenskog 20 29 32 -3 30
10 Junkeren 20 29 33 -4 28
11 Skeid 20 27 43 -16 17
12 Follo 21 25 45 -20 14
13 Ull/Kisa 21 25 70 -45 10
14 Trygg/Lade 20 23 47 -24 9
2. Division - Group 2 Norway. 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions