Prediction Audit: Follo vs Kjelsås Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Follo

Jun 12, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.22

4 1.38

xG Accuracy: 46%

Kjelsås

AI correctly predicted the Kjelsås win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Kjelsås Kjelsås ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Kjelsås win 1–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 12, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Follo 1.22 — Kjelsås 1.38
Jun 12, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Kjelsås win · 1–4
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 11:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2985696

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kjelsås win · Follo 1–4 Kjelsås

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 2. Division - Group 2
Fixture: Follo vs Kjelsås
Kickoff: 2026-06-12 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Follo 1.22 — Kjelsås 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Eidsvold	21	16	3	2	51
2	Kjelsås	22	15	2	5	47
3	Levanger	21	15	0	6	45
4	Hønefoss	22	14	3	5	45
5	Grorud	22	13	4	5	43
6	Stjørdals-Blink	22	10	3	9	33
7	Lørenskog	22	10	3	9	33
8	Tromsdalen Uil	21	9	2	10	29
9	Junkeren	21	8	4	9	28
10	Rana	21	8	3	10	27
11	Skeid	22	6	2	14	20
12	Follo	22	3	5	14	14
13	Ull/Kisa	22	3	1	18	10
14	Trygg/Lade	21	2	3	16	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hønefoss	22	56	33	+23	45
2	Eidsvold	21	52	17	+35	51
3	Levanger	21	51	23	+28	45
4	Kjelsås	22	51	32	+19	47
5	Grorud	22	40	20	+20	43
6	Stjørdals-Blink	22	38	38	0	33
7	Rana	21	36	38	-2	27
8	Tromsdalen Uil	21	35	36	-1	29
9	Lørenskog	22	33	37	-4	33
10	Skeid	22	32	50	-18	20
11	Junkeren	21	29	35	-6	28
12	Ull/Kisa	22	26	72	-46	10
13	Follo	22	25	46	-21	14
14	Trygg/Lade	21	24	51	-27	9