Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 / Bjarg vs Mjondalen

Prediction Audit: Bjarg vs Mjondalen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bjarg Bjarg
Aug 30, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Mjondalen Mjondalen

AI correctly predicted the Bjarg win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bjarg Bjarg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bjarg win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bjarg 1.32 — Mjondalen 1.28
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bjarg win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5132815

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bjarg win · Bjarg 1–0 Mjondalen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 1
  • Fixture: Bjarg vs Mjondalen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Bjarg 1.32 — Mjondalen 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 1 2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 jerv 23 16 5 2 53
2 Mjondalen 23 15 2 6 47
3 Brattvåg 22 14 3 5 45
4 Bjarg 22 14 2 6 44
5 Sotra 23 13 3 7 42
6 Notodden 22 10 5 7 35
7 Kvik Halden 23 10 4 9 34
8 Træff 22 8 6 8 30
9 Arendal 23 7 6 10 27
10 Pors Grenland 23 7 5 11 26
11 Sandviken 22 7 4 11 25
12 Lysekloster 22 3 6 13 15
13 Eik-Tønsberg 22 3 1 18 10
14 Vidar 22 2 4 16 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sotra 23 50 25 +25 42
2 jerv 23 49 23 +26 53
3 Brattvåg 22 47 28 +19 45
4 Bjarg 22 47 28 +19 44
5 Mjondalen 23 44 28 +16 47
6 Træff 22 36 44 -8 30
7 Kvik Halden 23 34 30 +4 34
8 Sandviken 22 33 45 -12 25
9 Arendal 23 32 40 -8 27
10 Notodden 22 31 20 +11 35
11 Pors Grenland 23 28 32 -4 26
12 Lysekloster 22 26 48 -22 15
13 Eik-Tønsberg 22 24 50 -26 10
14 Vidar 22 20 60 -40 10
2. Division - Group 1 Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions