Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 / Bjarg vs Sotra

Prediction Audit: Bjarg vs Sotra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bjarg Bjarg
Aug 08, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 59%
Sotra Sotra

AI correctly predicted the Sotra win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sotra Sotra ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Bjarg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bjarg -5.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bjarg 33.8% 39.0% -5.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.7% +3.0 pp Aligned
Sotra 36.6% 34.4% +2.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Bjarg's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sotra win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bjarg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sotra higher (41.8% vs model 36.6%, 5.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sotra win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bjarg 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Sotra 36.6%
    • xG · Bjarg 1.27 — Sotra 1.33
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bjarg 2.38 · Draw 3.48 · Sotra 2.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Bjarg 39.0% · Draw 26.7% · Sotra 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bjarg 2.38 · Draw 3.48 · Sotra 2.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Bjarg 39.0% · Draw 26.7% · Sotra 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sotra win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2812763

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sotra win · Bjarg 1–3 Sotra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 1
  • Fixture: Bjarg vs Sotra
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Bjarg 1.27 — Sotra 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 1 2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 jerv 21 16 3 2 51
2 Mjondalen 21 13 2 6 41
3 Sotra 21 12 3 6 39
4 Brattvåg 20 12 3 5 39
5 Bjarg 20 12 2 6 38
6 Notodden 21 10 5 6 35
7 Kvik Halden 20 9 4 7 31
8 Træff 20 8 6 6 30
9 Arendal 20 7 5 8 26
10 Pors Grenland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Sandviken 21 6 4 11 22
12 Lysekloster 21 3 5 13 14
13 Vidar 21 2 4 15 10
14 Eik-Tønsberg 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sotra 21 45 22 +23 39
2 jerv 21 44 18 +26 51
3 Bjarg 20 42 26 +16 38
4 Brattvåg 20 41 24 +17 39
5 Mjondalen 21 39 28 +11 41
6 Træff 20 36 36 0 30
7 Sandviken 21 32 45 -13 22
8 Notodden 21 30 17 +13 35
9 Kvik Halden 20 28 24 +4 31
10 Arendal 20 28 34 -6 26
11 Pors Grenland 21 24 30 -6 23
12 Lysekloster 21 23 45 -22 14
13 Eik-Tønsberg 20 21 47 -26 7
14 Vidar 21 19 56 -37 10
2. Division - Group 1 Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions