Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 / Brattvåg vs Mjondalen

Prediction Audit: Brattvåg vs Mjondalen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Brattvåg Brattvåg
Jul 25, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.41
5 1.19
xG Accuracy: 23%
Mjondalen Mjondalen

The model missed the final outcome (Mjondalen win 3–5).

The model had projected Brattvåg at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Brattvåg Mjondalen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Brattvåg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Brattvåg -7.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Brattvåg 40.4% 48.3% -7.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 25.1% +4.3 pp Aligned
Mjondalen 30.1% 26.5% +3.6 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Brattvåg's win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mjondalen win 3–5.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Brattvåg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Brattvåg; match finished Mjondalen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Brattvåg by 7.9 percentage points (48.3% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Brattvåg 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Mjondalen 30.1%
    • xG · Brattvåg 1.41 — Mjondalen 1.19
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Brattvåg 1.92 · Draw 3.69 · Mjondalen 3.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Brattvåg 48.3% · Draw 25.1% · Mjondalen 26.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Brattvåg 1.92 · Draw 3.69 · Mjondalen 3.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Brattvåg 48.3% · Draw 25.1% · Mjondalen 26.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mjondalen win · 3–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453474

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mjondalen win · Brattvåg 3–5 Mjondalen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Norwegian 2nd Division Group 1
  • Fixture: Brattvåg vs Mjondalen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Brattvåg 1.41 — Mjondalen 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 1 2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 jerv 21 16 3 2 51
2 Mjondalen 21 13 2 6 41
3 Sotra 21 12 3 6 39
4 Brattvåg 20 12 3 5 39
5 Bjarg 20 12 2 6 38
6 Notodden 21 10 5 6 35
7 Kvik Halden 20 9 4 7 31
8 Træff 20 8 6 6 30
9 Arendal 20 7 5 8 26
10 Pors Grenland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Sandviken 21 6 4 11 22
12 Lysekloster 21 3 5 13 14
13 Vidar 21 2 4 15 10
14 Eik-Tønsberg 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sotra 21 45 22 +23 39
2 jerv 21 44 18 +26 51
3 Bjarg 20 42 26 +16 38
4 Brattvåg 20 41 24 +17 39
5 Mjondalen 21 39 28 +11 41
6 Træff 20 36 36 0 30
7 Sandviken 21 32 45 -13 22
8 Notodden 21 30 17 +13 35
9 Kvik Halden 20 28 24 +4 31
10 Arendal 20 28 34 -6 26
11 Pors Grenland 21 24 30 -6 23
12 Lysekloster 21 23 45 -22 14
13 Eik-Tønsberg 20 21 47 -26 7
14 Vidar 21 19 56 -37 10
2. Division - Group 1 Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions