The model missed the final outcome (Notodden win 0–2).
The model had projected Lysekloster at 36.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lysekloster Notodden ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lysekloster | 36.9% | 27.4% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 28.3% | 24.2% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Notodden | 34.8% | 48.4% | -13.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Notodden's win probability at 48.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.8%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Notodden win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Notodden than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Lysekloster; match finished Notodden
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lysekloster by 13.6 percentage points (50.5% vs model 36.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 17:20 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lysekloster 36.9% · Draw 28.3% · Notodden 34.8%
- xG · Lysekloster 1.42 — Notodden 1.18
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lysekloster 3.39 · Draw 3.83 · Notodden 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · Lysekloster 27.4% · Draw 24.2% · Notodden 48.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lysekloster 3.39 · Draw 3.83 · Notodden 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · Lysekloster 27.4% · Draw 24.2% · Notodden 48.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Notodden win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 2 | Bjarg | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 3 | Brattvåg | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 42 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Sotra | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 39 |
| 6 | Notodden | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 8 | Træff | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
| 9 | Pors Grenland | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | Arendal | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 22 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 22 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Vidar | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjarg | 22 | 47 | 28 | +19 | 44 |
| 2 | Sotra | 21 | 45 | 22 | +23 | 39 |
| 3 | jerv | 21 | 44 | 18 | +26 | 51 |
| 4 | Brattvåg | 21 | 44 | 26 | +18 | 42 |
| 5 | Mjondalen | 21 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 41 |
| 6 | Træff | 21 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 30 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 22 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 34 |
| 8 | Sandviken | 21 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 22 |
| 9 | Notodden | 22 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 35 |
| 10 | Arendal | 21 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 26 |
| 11 | Pors Grenland | 22 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 26 |
| 12 | Eik-Tønsberg | 22 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 10 |
| 13 | Lysekloster | 21 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 14 |
| 14 | Vidar | 22 | 20 | 60 | -40 | 10 |
