Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division / ODD Ballklubb vs Kongsvinger

Prediction Audit: ODD Ballklubb vs Kongsvinger Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ODD Ballklubb ODD Ballklubb
Aug 26, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.16
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 64%
Kongsvinger Kongsvinger

AI correctly predicted the Kongsvinger win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kongsvinger Kongsvinger ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +6.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ODD Ballklubb 28.8% 34.6% -5.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 22.4% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Kongsvinger 41.9% 43.0% -1.1 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kongsvinger win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kongsvinger more conservatively (35.0% vs model 41.9%, 6.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kongsvinger win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ODD Ballklubb 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Kongsvinger 41.9%
    • xG · ODD Ballklubb 1.16 — Kongsvinger 1.44
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ODD Ballklubb 2.76 · Draw 4.25 · Kongsvinger 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · ODD Ballklubb 34.6% · Draw 22.4% · Kongsvinger 43.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · ODD Ballklubb 2.76 · Draw 4.25 · Kongsvinger 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · ODD Ballklubb 34.6% · Draw 22.4% · Kongsvinger 43.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kongsvinger win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 65/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4678102

Closing Odds 4.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kongsvinger win · ODD Ballklubb 0–1 Kongsvinger
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Kongsvinger
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): ODD Ballklubb 1.16 — Kongsvinger 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haugesund 23 17 1 5 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 15 5 3 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 14 6 3 48
4 Stabaek 23 14 3 6 45
5 ODD Ballklubb 23 10 6 7 36
6 Bryne 23 11 2 10 35
7 hodd 23 10 4 9 34
8 Egersund 23 8 5 10 29
9 Ranheim 23 8 4 11 28
10 Lyn 23 8 4 11 28
11 Moss 23 7 4 12 25
12 Strommen 23 7 4 12 25
13 Sandnes ULF 23 7 3 13 24
14 Sogndal 23 6 5 12 23
15 Asane 23 5 5 13 20
16 Raufoss 23 6 1 16 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haugesund 23 72 39 +33 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 68 35 +33 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 60 31 +29 48
4 Stabaek 23 57 29 +28 45
5 Ranheim 23 56 58 -2 28
6 ODD Ballklubb 23 47 36 +11 36
7 Lyn 23 39 48 -9 28
8 hodd 23 38 45 -7 34
9 Moss 23 38 52 -14 25
10 Sogndal 23 38 53 -15 23
11 Egersund 23 36 44 -8 29
12 Strommen 23 35 52 -17 25
13 Asane 23 34 52 -18 20
14 Bryne 23 32 31 +1 35
15 Sandnes ULF 23 32 42 -10 24
16 Raufoss 23 26 61 -35 19
1. Division Norway. 1. Division Predictions