Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division / Raufoss vs Asane

Prediction Audit: Raufoss vs Asane Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Raufoss Raufoss
Aug 16, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Asane Asane

The model missed the final outcome (Asane win 1–2).

The model had projected Raufoss at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Raufoss Asane ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Raufoss higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Raufoss -13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Raufoss 36.1% 49.2% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.9% +4.7 pp Aligned
Asane 34.2% 25.8% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Raufoss's win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Asane win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Raufoss than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Raufoss; match finished Asane

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Raufoss by 13.1 percentage points (49.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Raufoss 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Asane 34.2%
    • xG · Raufoss 1.32 — Asane 1.28
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Raufoss 1.93 · Draw 3.81 · Asane 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Raufoss 49.2% · Draw 24.9% · Asane 25.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Raufoss 1.93 · Draw 3.81 · Asane 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Raufoss 49.2% · Draw 24.9% · Asane 25.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Asane win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3608560

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Asane win · Raufoss 1–2 Asane
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Raufoss vs Asane
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Raufoss 1.32 — Asane 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haugesund 23 17 1 5 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 15 5 3 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 14 6 3 48
4 Stabaek 23 14 3 6 45
5 ODD Ballklubb 23 10 6 7 36
6 Bryne 23 11 2 10 35
7 hodd 23 10 4 9 34
8 Egersund 23 8 5 10 29
9 Ranheim 23 8 4 11 28
10 Lyn 23 8 4 11 28
11 Moss 23 7 4 12 25
12 Strommen 23 7 4 12 25
13 Sandnes ULF 23 7 3 13 24
14 Sogndal 23 6 5 12 23
15 Asane 23 5 5 13 20
16 Raufoss 23 6 1 16 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haugesund 23 72 39 +33 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 68 35 +33 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 60 31 +29 48
4 Stabaek 23 57 29 +28 45
5 Ranheim 23 56 58 -2 28
6 ODD Ballklubb 23 47 36 +11 36
7 Lyn 23 39 48 -9 28
8 hodd 23 38 45 -7 34
9 Moss 23 38 52 -14 25
10 Sogndal 23 38 53 -15 23
11 Egersund 23 36 44 -8 29
12 Strommen 23 35 52 -17 25
13 Asane 23 34 52 -18 20
14 Bryne 23 32 31 +1 35
15 Sandnes ULF 23 32 42 -10 24
16 Raufoss 23 26 61 -35 19
1. Division Norway. 1. Division Predictions