Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division / Egersund vs Stabaek

Prediction Audit: Egersund vs Stabaek Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Egersund Egersund
Aug 16, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.41
4 1.19
xG Accuracy: 31%
Stabaek Stabaek

The model missed the final outcome (Stabaek win 0–4).

The model had projected Egersund at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Egersund Stabaek ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stabaek higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stabaek -12.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Egersund 40.4% 33.9% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 23.9% +5.6 pp Model Higher
Stabaek 30.1% 42.3% -12.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Stabaek's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Stabaek win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Stabaek than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Egersund by 12.1 percentage points (52.5% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Egersund 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Stabaek 30.1%
    • xG · Egersund 1.41 — Stabaek 1.19
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Egersund 2.82 · Draw 4.00 · Stabaek 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Egersund 33.9% · Draw 23.9% · Stabaek 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Egersund 2.82 · Draw 4.00 · Stabaek 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Egersund 33.9% · Draw 23.9% · Stabaek 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stabaek win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3608346

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stabaek win · Egersund 0–4 Stabaek
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Egersund vs Stabaek
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Egersund 1.41 — Stabaek 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haugesund 23 17 1 5 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 15 5 3 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 14 6 3 48
4 Stabaek 23 14 3 6 45
5 ODD Ballklubb 23 10 6 7 36
6 Bryne 23 11 2 10 35
7 hodd 23 10 4 9 34
8 Egersund 23 8 5 10 29
9 Ranheim 23 8 4 11 28
10 Lyn 23 8 4 11 28
11 Moss 23 7 4 12 25
12 Strommen 23 7 4 12 25
13 Sandnes ULF 23 7 3 13 24
14 Sogndal 23 6 5 12 23
15 Asane 23 5 5 13 20
16 Raufoss 23 6 1 16 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haugesund 23 72 39 +33 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 68 35 +33 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 60 31 +29 48
4 Stabaek 23 57 29 +28 45
5 Ranheim 23 56 58 -2 28
6 ODD Ballklubb 23 47 36 +11 36
7 Lyn 23 39 48 -9 28
8 hodd 23 38 45 -7 34
9 Moss 23 38 52 -14 25
10 Sogndal 23 38 53 -15 23
11 Egersund 23 36 44 -8 29
12 Strommen 23 35 52 -17 25
13 Asane 23 34 52 -18 20
14 Bryne 23 32 31 +1 35
15 Sandnes ULF 23 32 42 -10 24
16 Raufoss 23 26 61 -35 19
1. Division Norway. 1. Division Predictions