AI correctly predicted the Haugesund win.
The match finished 7–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Haugesund Haugesund ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 7-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haugesund | 38.0% | 72.2% | -34.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 15.2% | +14.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Raufoss | 32.4% | 12.6% | +19.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Haugesund's win probability at 72.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 34.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Haugesund win 7–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Haugesund higher (72.2% vs model 38.0%, 34.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Haugesund win 7–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Haugesund 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Raufoss 32.4%
- xG · Haugesund 1.36 — Raufoss 1.24
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Haugesund 1.31 · Draw 6.22 · Raufoss 7.52
- Implied 1X2 · Haugesund 72.2% · Draw 15.2% · Raufoss 12.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Haugesund 1.31 · Draw 6.22 · Raufoss 7.52
- Implied 1X2 · Haugesund 72.2% · Draw 15.2% · Raufoss 12.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Haugesund win · 7–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (34 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 52 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 48 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | ODD Ballklubb | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Bryne | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 35 |
| 7 | hodd | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 8 | Egersund | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 9 | Ranheim | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 10 | Lyn | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 11 | Moss | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 12 | Strommen | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 13 | Sandnes ULF | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 14 | Sogndal | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 23 |
| 15 | Asane | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 23 | 72 | 39 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 23 | 68 | 35 | +33 | 50 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 23 | 60 | 31 | +29 | 48 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 23 | 57 | 29 | +28 | 45 |
| 5 | Ranheim | 23 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 | ODD Ballklubb | 23 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 36 |
| 7 | Lyn | 23 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 28 |
| 8 | hodd | 23 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Moss | 23 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 25 |
| 10 | Sogndal | 23 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 23 |
| 11 | Egersund | 23 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Strommen | 23 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 25 |
| 13 | Asane | 23 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 20 |
| 14 | Bryne | 23 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sandnes ULF | 23 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 24 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 23 | 26 | 61 | -35 | 19 |
