Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division / Haugesund vs Raufoss

Prediction Audit: Haugesund vs Raufoss Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Haugesund Haugesund
Aug 09, 2026 - 15:00
7 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 17%
Raufoss Raufoss

AI correctly predicted the Haugesund win.

The match finished 7–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Haugesund Haugesund ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 7-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Haugesund higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haugesund -34.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Haugesund 38.0% 72.2% -34.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 15.2% +14.4 pp Model Edge
Raufoss 32.4% 12.6% +19.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Haugesund's win probability at 72.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 34.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Haugesund win 7–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Haugesund higher (72.2% vs model 38.0%, 34.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Haugesund win 7–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Haugesund 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Raufoss 32.4%
    • xG · Haugesund 1.36 — Raufoss 1.24
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Haugesund 1.31 · Draw 6.22 · Raufoss 7.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Haugesund 72.2% · Draw 15.2% · Raufoss 12.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Haugesund 1.31 · Draw 6.22 · Raufoss 7.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Haugesund 72.2% · Draw 15.2% · Raufoss 12.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Haugesund win · 7–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2965032

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Haugesund win · Haugesund 7–2 Raufoss
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Haugesund; market prices Haugesund instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Haugesund 1.36 xG vs Raufoss 1.24 → Haugesund 38.0%
  • Market: Haugesund ~72.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haugesund 22 16 1 5 49
2 Kongsvinger 22 14 5 3 47
3 Stromsgodset 22 13 6 3 45
4 Stabaek 22 13 3 6 42
5 Bryne 23 11 2 10 35
6 hodd 22 10 4 8 34
7 ODD Ballklubb 22 9 6 7 33
8 Egersund 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lyn 22 8 4 10 28
10 Ranheim 22 7 4 11 25
11 Strommen 22 7 4 11 25
12 Sandnes ULF 22 7 3 12 24
13 Sogndal 22 6 5 11 23
14 Moss 22 6 4 12 22
15 Asane 23 5 5 13 20
16 Raufoss 22 6 1 15 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haugesund 22 68 37 +31 49
2 Kongsvinger 22 63 34 +29 47
3 Stromsgodset 22 58 31 +27 45
4 Stabaek 22 55 28 +27 42
5 Ranheim 22 52 57 -5 25
6 ODD Ballklubb 22 42 35 +7 33
7 Lyn 22 38 44 -6 28
8 hodd 22 37 40 -3 34
9 Sogndal 22 37 51 -14 23
10 Moss 22 36 51 -15 22
11 Egersund 22 35 39 -4 29
12 Asane 23 34 52 -18 20
13 Strommen 22 33 48 -15 25
14 Bryne 23 32 31 +1 35
15 Sandnes ULF 22 31 40 -9 24
16 Raufoss 22 26 59 -33 19