Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division / Haugesund vs Bryne

Prediction Audit: Haugesund vs Bryne Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Haugesund Haugesund
Jul 25, 2026 - 18:00
1 2.05
2 1.87
xG Accuracy: 72%
Bryne Bryne

The model missed the final outcome (Bryne win 1–2).

The model had projected Haugesund at 46.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Haugesund Bryne ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Haugesund higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haugesund -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Haugesund 46.0% 55.9% -9.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 22.8% 21.6% +1.2 pp Aligned
Bryne 31.2% 22.5% +8.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Haugesund's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.0%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Bryne win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Haugesund. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.92) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Haugesund; match finished Bryne

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Haugesund by 9.9 percentage points (55.9% vs model 46.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:51 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Haugesund 46.0% · Draw 22.8% · Bryne 31.1%
    • xG · Haugesund 2.05 — Bryne 1.87
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Haugesund 1.70 · Draw 4.41 · Bryne 4.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Haugesund 55.9% · Draw 21.6% · Bryne 22.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Haugesund 1.70 · Draw 4.41 · Bryne 4.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Haugesund 55.9% · Draw 21.6% · Bryne 22.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bryne win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 68/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100
Betting Confidence 71/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456734

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bryne win · Haugesund 1–2 Bryne
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Norwegian 1st Division
  • Fixture: Haugesund vs Bryne
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Haugesund 2.05 — Bryne 1.87 (total xG ≈ 3.92)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haugesund 23 17 1 5 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 15 5 3 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 14 6 3 48
4 Stabaek 23 14 3 6 45
5 ODD Ballklubb 23 10 6 7 36
6 Bryne 23 11 2 10 35
7 hodd 23 10 4 9 34
8 Egersund 23 8 5 10 29
9 Ranheim 23 8 4 11 28
10 Lyn 23 8 4 11 28
11 Moss 23 7 4 12 25
12 Strommen 23 7 4 12 25
13 Sandnes ULF 23 7 3 13 24
14 Sogndal 23 6 5 12 23
15 Asane 23 5 5 13 20
16 Raufoss 23 6 1 16 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haugesund 23 72 39 +33 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 68 35 +33 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 60 31 +29 48
4 Stabaek 23 57 29 +28 45
5 Ranheim 23 56 58 -2 28
6 ODD Ballklubb 23 47 36 +11 36
7 Lyn 23 39 48 -9 28
8 hodd 23 38 45 -7 34
9 Moss 23 38 52 -14 25
10 Sogndal 23 38 53 -15 23
11 Egersund 23 36 44 -8 29
12 Strommen 23 35 52 -17 25
13 Asane 23 34 52 -18 20
14 Bryne 23 32 31 +1 35
15 Sandnes ULF 23 32 42 -10 24
16 Raufoss 23 26 61 -35 19
1. Division Norway. 1. Division Predictions