Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division / Asane vs Egersund

Prediction Audit: Asane vs Egersund Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Asane Asane
Jul 26, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.19
3 1.41
xG Accuracy: 39%
Egersund Egersund

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Egersund at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Egersund Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Egersund higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Egersund -8.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Asane 28.9% 24.9% +3.9 pp Aligned
Draw 27.8% 23.7% +4.1 pp Aligned
Egersund 43.4% 51.4% -8.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Egersund's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Egersund. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Egersund; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Egersund by 8.0 percentage points (51.4% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Asane 28.9% · Draw 27.8% · Egersund 43.3%
    • xG · Asane 1.19 — Egersund 1.41
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Asane 3.81 · Draw 4.01 · Egersund 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Asane 24.9% · Draw 23.7% · Egersund 51.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Asane 3.81 · Draw 4.01 · Egersund 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Asane 24.9% · Draw 23.7% · Egersund 51.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452952

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Asane 3–3 Egersund
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Norwegian 1st Division
  • Fixture: Asane vs Egersund
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Asane 1.19 — Egersund 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haugesund 23 17 1 5 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 15 5 3 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 14 6 3 48
4 Stabaek 23 14 3 6 45
5 ODD Ballklubb 23 10 6 7 36
6 Bryne 23 11 2 10 35
7 hodd 23 10 4 9 34
8 Egersund 23 8 5 10 29
9 Ranheim 23 8 4 11 28
10 Lyn 23 8 4 11 28
11 Moss 23 7 4 12 25
12 Strommen 23 7 4 12 25
13 Sandnes ULF 23 7 3 13 24
14 Sogndal 23 6 5 12 23
15 Asane 23 5 5 13 20
16 Raufoss 23 6 1 16 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haugesund 23 72 39 +33 52
2 Kongsvinger 23 68 35 +33 50
3 Stromsgodset 23 60 31 +29 48
4 Stabaek 23 57 29 +28 45
5 Ranheim 23 56 58 -2 28
6 ODD Ballklubb 23 47 36 +11 36
7 Lyn 23 39 48 -9 28
8 hodd 23 38 45 -7 34
9 Moss 23 38 52 -14 25
10 Sogndal 23 38 53 -15 23
11 Egersund 23 36 44 -8 29
12 Strommen 23 35 52 -17 25
13 Asane 23 34 52 -18 20
14 Bryne 23 32 31 +1 35
15 Sandnes ULF 23 32 42 -10 24
16 Raufoss 23 26 61 -35 19
1. Division Norway. 1. Division Predictions