Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division / Ranheim vs Stabaek

Prediction Audit: Ranheim vs Stabaek Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ranheim Ranheim
Jul 03, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.38
5 1.22
xG Accuracy: 30%
Stabaek Stabaek

The model missed the final outcome (Stabaek win 2–5).

The model had projected Ranheim at 37.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ranheim Stabaek ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ranheim; match finished Stabaek

Market lesson

The full-time result was Stabaek win 2–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 03, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Ranheim 1.38 — Stabaek 1.22
  2. Jul 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Stabaek win · 2–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1651523

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stabaek win · Ranheim 2–5 Stabaek
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Ranheim vs Stabaek
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-03 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Ranheim 1.38 — Stabaek 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haugesund 24 18 1 5 55
2 Kongsvinger 24 16 5 3 53
3 Stromsgodset 24 15 6 3 51
4 Stabaek 24 14 3 7 45
5 ODD Ballklubb 24 11 6 7 39
6 Bryne 24 12 2 10 38
7 hodd 24 10 4 10 34
8 Ranheim 24 9 4 11 31
9 Egersund 24 8 5 11 29
10 Lyn 24 8 4 12 28
11 Strommen 24 7 5 12 26
12 Sandnes ULF 24 7 4 13 25
13 Moss 24 7 4 13 25
14 Sogndal 23 6 5 12 23
15 Asane 24 5 5 14 20
16 Raufoss 23 6 1 16 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haugesund 24 74 39 +35 55
2 Kongsvinger 24 70 35 +35 53
3 Stromsgodset 24 61 31 +30 51
4 Ranheim 24 61 58 +3 31
5 Stabaek 24 57 31 +26 45
6 ODD Ballklubb 24 50 38 +12 39
7 hodd 24 40 48 -8 34
8 Lyn 24 39 49 -10 28
9 Sogndal 23 38 53 -15 23
10 Moss 24 38 54 -16 25
11 Strommen 24 38 55 -17 26
12 Egersund 24 36 49 -13 29
13 Sandnes ULF 24 35 45 -10 25
14 Asane 24 34 53 -19 20
15 Bryne 24 33 31 +2 38
16 Raufoss 23 26 61 -35 19
1. Division Norway. 1. Division Predictions