Predictions / Football / Finland. Veikkausliiga / Ilves vs Mariehamn

Prediction Audit: Ilves vs Mariehamn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ilves Ilves
Aug 09, 2026 - 15:00
2 2.23
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 67%
Mariehamn Mariehamn

AI correctly predicted the Ilves win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ilves Ilves ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ilves higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ilves -12.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ilves 62.0% 74.1% -12.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 21.0% 15.5% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Mariehamn 17.0% 10.4% +6.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Ilves's win probability at 74.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 62.0%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ilves win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ilves than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Ilves attacking xG significantly stronger (2.23 vs 1.22)
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ilves higher (74.1% vs model 62.0%, 12.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ilves win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ilves 62.0% · Draw 20.9% · Mariehamn 17.0%
    • xG · Ilves 2.23 — Mariehamn 1.22
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ilves 1.29 · Draw 6.18 · Mariehamn 9.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Ilves 74.1% · Draw 15.5% · Mariehamn 10.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Ilves 1.29 · Draw 6.18 · Mariehamn 9.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Ilves 74.1% · Draw 15.5% · Mariehamn 10.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ilves win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (65%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 39/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2816871

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ilves win · Ilves 2–0 Mariehamn
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Veikkausliiga
  • Fixture: Ilves vs Mariehamn
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Ilves 2.23 — Mariehamn 1.22 (total xG ≈ 3.45)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Veikkausliiga Veikkausliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 — — — 42
12 Gnistan 22 — — — 36