Predictions / Football / Finland. Veikkausliiga / Mariehamn vs AC Oulu

Prediction Audit: Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mariehamn Mariehamn
Jul 25, 2026 - 13:30
1 2.63
1 1.77
xG Accuracy: 52%
AC Oulu AC Oulu

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Mariehamn at 47.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mariehamn Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 3-1, 3-2, 1-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Mariehamn considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Mariehamn +30.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mariehamn 47.4% 17.2% +30.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 21.5% 21.9% -0.3 pp Aligned
AC Oulu 31.1% 61.0% -29.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Mariehamn's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 17.2%, a difference of 30.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Mariehamn; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mariehamn by 30.2 percentage points (17.2% vs model 47.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 21:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mariehamn 47.4% · Draw 21.6% · AC Oulu 31.1%
    • xG · Mariehamn 2.63 — AC Oulu 1.77
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mariehamn 5.61 · Draw 4.41 · AC Oulu 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Mariehamn 17.2% · Draw 21.9% · AC Oulu 61.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mariehamn 5.61 · Draw 4.41 · AC Oulu 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Mariehamn 17.2% · Draw 21.9% · AC Oulu 61.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 22/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (95%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 6/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455787

Closing Odds 5.61
AI Fair Odds 1.76
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mariehamn 1–1 AC Oulu
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 56.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Mariehamn; market prices AC Oulu instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Mariehamn 2.63 xG vs AC Oulu 1.77 → Mariehamn 47.4%
  • Market: AC Oulu ~17.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Veikkausliiga Veikkausliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 — — — 42
12 Gnistan 22 — — — 36